Why this Seattle reliever will take a huge jump in 2023
Why this Seattle reliever will take a huge jump in 2023
The Mariners have had an excellent bullpen in each of the last two seasons. Many think the team should add another back end bullpen arm, but could that player already be on the roster?
The Seattle Mariners have been extremely strong in their bullpen in each of the past two seasons. Jerry Dipoto and this front office have been objectively fantastic at building a bullpen, but some question marks remain.
In each of the last two seasons, the back end of the Mariners bullpen has slowed down at the end of the year. I still believe Seattle should add a high-leverage arm to the back end of this bullpen this offseason, but it is possible Dipoto believes this arm is already on the roster.
He has mentioned players like Isaiah Campbell and Prelander Berroa as potential impact options this season. Both players could be impactful, but it is hard to count on them as rookies.
I believe Diego Castillo has a chance to be better next season, but we have likely seen his best days already. Matt Brash is already likely being counted on as a high-leverage arm.
This team got rid of Erik Swanson in the trade with the Blue Jays, removing a high-leverage arm who was coming off an incredible season. They need to replace his role, and Matthew Festa may be the guy to do it.
Festa ended last season as a bigger part of the pitching staff than on opening day. He took a step forward and threw big-time innings in middle relief, using a combination of fastball and slider.
The 29 year old struggled mightily at the beginning of last season but seemed to earn the trust of Manager Scott Servais as the season went along. He threw 54 innings last season and posted a 4.17 ERA, with a FIP of 4.26. He posted an fWAR that was slightly negative and a bWAR that was slightly positive.
Festa is much better against right-handed batters and got destroyed by lefties at times. His performance against left-handed hitters tanked his numbers, giving up seven home runs and allowing a slugging percentage of .513.
On the surface, it seems like Festa is little more than an average reliever. However, there are some things in his profile that suggest he could be better than this.
Festa has well above-average spin on his four seam fastball, a pitch he threw 43% of the time. This pitch was extremely effective, and opponents hit just .179 against it last season.
His best pitch was a big sweeping slider that he threw nearly 57 percent of the time. This pitch was hit well by lefties but dominated right-handed hitters. The Mariners clearly feel this was his best offering, and it is hard to argue with a pitch that moves 6.1 inches more than the average slider.
Festa ranked in the 94th percentile of Hard Hit % and in the 80th percentile or better in K%, Whiff %, and Chase Rate. His Baseball Savant page is tremendous, and there is plenty of reason to believe we could expect more out of him in 2023.
So how can a player with two good pitches but mediocre results get better in 2023? I believe there are a few things he could tweak to replace Erik Swanson’s production.
In the same way Seattle was strategic with the deployment of Swanson, they could be strategic with Festa. They know he struggles against left-handed batters but can be very effective against righties. He had a FIP North of 6 against left-handed batters, which I expect to level out next season.
The main way that I believe Festa could improve is by throwing more strikes. He ranked in the 45th percentile of BB%, one of his only below-average marks. Festa struggled to throw strikes at times, especially to lefties.
Festa walked lefties at nearly 10% while ranking under 8% against right-handed hitters. If he can continue to develop a better feel of the strike zone while still getting swings and misses, the Brooklyn native could be even more effective.
I believe Seattle could place Festa in an elevated role next season because of his potential and good underlying numbers. With a few more strikes and a different strategy toward lefties, he could be an asset that nobody saw coming.