Why the Mariners need another bullpen arm
Surgeries for Andrés Muñoz and Paul Sewald have their availability in question for the start of Spring Training. This reinforces the idea that Seattle needs more proven back end help in their bullpen.
Jerry Dipoto and his front office are one of the best in baseball at building bullpens, something he has consistently done in his Mariners tenure. He has consistently built bullpens that have dominated, especially each of the last two seasons resulting in 90 wins.
Seattle has heavily relied on their relievers in the last two seasons. Leading the league in one-run victories two seasons in a row is no accident, and the Mariners’ bullpen is the biggest reason why.
Following the 2022 season, Andrés Muñoz had surgery on his foot, and reports state that Paul Sewald had two separate surgeries including one on his elbow. While neither player is expected to miss regular season time, this furthers my opinion that Seattle needs to help these players.
In both of the last two seasons, Sewald has been run into the ground, not looking at all like himself once September comes around. Muñoz was mostly solid but showed signs of fatigue in October.
This team dealt Erik Swanson in the deal with Toronto that netted them Teoscar Hernández. Swanson was one of their high-leverage arms last season, and he could be difficult to replace.
The Mariners play in a lot of close games because of good starting pitching and their relatively mediocre offense. This can wear down a bullpen over time, especially if the leverage options aren’t aplenty.
I believe Seattle should locate and acquire another high-leverage arm for this bullpen from outside the organization. There are a few free agents out there, but it is highly unlikely they would pay for a reliever.
Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore are both excellent relievers, and are both on the open market. If they go unsigned for too much longer we could potentially see Seattle showing interest, but they don’t like to spend money on a bullpen they can build in cheaper ways.
The trade market is a much more likely avenue in my opinion. One player that I really like is Scott Barlow from the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have been active in the trade market and could look to offload Barlow at his highest value.
He limits hard contact and gets a good amount of swing and miss, especially with a high spin rate fastball and an excellent slider. Barlow is my favorite target right now, but a few other good options remain.
Daniel Bard in Colorado is a nice target because of his recent success, plus the Rockies have no chance to compete in the NL West. Bard posted a 1.79 ERA and a 2.86 FIP while nearly being a 2 WAR reliever in 2022.
Tanner Scott from Baltimore could be an interesting name in a swap for a player like Chris Flexen.
My favorite and the most likely move that Seattle could make is claiming Matt Barnes on waivers in Boston. Barnes is coming off a down year but still put together a 3.86 FIP, and before last year was worth at least 1 WAR in 4 out of 5 seasons.
He has experience as a high leverage reliever and in big games, and with a few tweaks Seattle could get him back to form. Many teams in front of the Mariners would probably like to get a shot to claim him, so it seems unlikely he would make it all the way to Seattle.
The most likely scenario remains that Dipoto and this front office stick with young players. They will likely expect players like Matt Brash, Matt Festa and Andrés Muñoz to take a jump in 2022 in their second seasons as full time MLB players.
The Mariners have taken many upside shots this offseason as well, signing Trevor Gott and acquiring Justin Topa as well. Familiar face Casey Sadler could also factor into the mix here.
I believe Seattle needs to add more quality back end bullpen depth to protect their high leverage pitchers. They probably will not because they believe in internal development and also some young players we have not mentioned.
Isaiah Campbell and Prelander Berroa are two guys who could jump into big roles, similar to Penn Murfee in 2022. Campbell in particular is a name to watch, with an electric fastball/slider combination.
Overall I think we have to trust Jerry Dipoto and this front office to do what they do best. This bullpen has been run down in the latter part of the last few seasons, but hopefully with continued development and better starting pitching this bullpen can remain elite.