What would an AJ Pollock signing bring to the Mariners?
As the offseason moves further on it is becoming harder and harder to see an acquisition of high impact for the Mariners, especially in the outfield. Could AJ Pollock provide impact for Seattle?
The offseason started out with a bang with the addition of Teoscar Hernández, but the Mariners have struggled to find impact since. Seattle has an apparent aversion to signing a long-term free agent and seems to prefer a trade for an impact player. Any exchange for an impact outfielder could include Jarred Kelenic, but if they can’t find a trade partner Seattle has to be prepared to roll with Kelenic.
Kelenic will be entering his third year at the MLB level and despite early struggles is just 23 years old. He still can be very impactful in the long run, but he will need playing time to do so. I am of the belief that the Mariners need to deal him for an impact player right now or play him every day.
Seattle has stated their needs clearly as needing a right-handed outfielder who can handle lefties, allowing the team to protect their left-handed outfielders. With Kelenic trending in the right direction near the end of last season, Seattle could start the year with a platoon in left field and try to swing an in-season deal for an impact player like Bryan Reynolds.
It was reported that Seattle has an offer on the table for outfielder AJ Pollock, who spent last season playing for the Chicago White Sox. It is also said that he has an offer from the Dodgers, a team he played three seasons with. Pollock was also with the Diamondbacks organization during Jerry Dipoto’s tenure.
So why is Seattle interested in Pollock? He hits left-handed pitching.
In 133 plate appearances against lefties last season Pollock did plenty of damage. He put up a .286 average and 11 home runs while hitting just .231 against right-handers. He has hit lefties well his entire career with a 129 WRC+ over his 11-year MLB career.
Pollock is just one year removed from a 3-win season in 2021 with Los Angeles but will be 35 years old this season. He would likely be looking at a one-year deal this offseason to try to raise his value once again. His .681 OPS doesn’t inspire much confidence, so why should we believe he would be any better in Seattle?
First of all the AL West is loaded with left-handed pitchers. Every opposing team in Seattle’s division will be rolling out at least two lefties in their rotation except the Astros. This means it will be as important as ever that Seattle can hit left-handed pitching, something they have struggled mightily at the last two seasons.
They already picked up Hernández who destroys lefties, and Pollock would be another player who carries this skillset. A player that had a 161 WRC+ over the last two seasons against left-handed pitching could be extremely valuable in this division.
Pairing him with Kelenic gives Seattle a shot at helping him reach his potential without trading him away. The Mariners have shopped Kelenic recently but at this point would likely only deal him if it meant they got impact in return. His tools are too much to give up on, especially at 23 years old.
Getting him a platoon partner isn’t the ideal offseason but it allows the Mariners to give him one more shot.
Pollock’s advanced numbers are better than his traditional numbers by a long shot, giving you hope that he could return to a form better than what we saw in 2022.
When we take a look at his Baseball Savant page we can still see a player who hits the ball decently hard but ranks above average in most of the categories that are important. His xwOBA was almost 30 points higher than his actual wOBA and his batting average and slugging were also lower than expected. All of this can lead us to believe there was more expected value in Pollock’s batted balls, which could regain form next season.
If Seattle does not believe they can acquire anybody of impact in the outfield this offseason then Pollock is an excellent fit. He could protect Kelenic, Trammell, or Marlowe against tough lefties and be a serviceable option against righties. Signing Pollock also wouldn’t preclude Seattle from making a deal to acquire an impact bat.
The Mariners need to improve their offense against left-handed pitching regardless of acquiring an impact bat. Pollock is a good fit for this and I could see Seattle giving him a one-year deal worth close to 10 million.