What to expect from Robbie Ray in 2023
What to expect from Robbie Ray in 2023
In the first of my expectation series we will take a look at Robbie Ray and what to expect from him in 2023.
One player who was unfairly criticized for most of last season is starting pitcher Robbie Ray. Much of this has to do with his crushing home run at the hands of Yordan Álvarez in game 1 of the ALDS.
Ray was handed a big contract last offseason, but all the criticism is extremely unfair. I believe he is due for a bounce-back season and will continue to be worth every penny for the Mariners.
After being handed a five-year 115 million dollar contract last offseason the expectations were understandably high for the 31 year old Tennessee native. Ray posted a 3.71 ERA in 189 innings while striking out 212 batters.
His ERA was up almost a full point in 2022 after winning the Cy Young Award for Toronto in 2021, but his advanced numbers weren’t all that different.
His xERA and xwOBA were almost identical to his 2021 performance, just slightly worse in the 2022 season. Because he is mostly a two-pitch starter, Ray has a tendency to get hit hard at times due to predictability and the hitter’s ability to guess on one of the two pitches.
He typically ranks poorly in most of the batted ball metrics, but Ray actually performed better in the 2022 campaign. His Hard Hit % against ranked in the 39th percentile in 2022 compared to the 17th percentile in 2021. He also ranked much better in Barrel percentage in 2022, ranking in the 38th percentile compared to 16th in 2021.
One way he was able to limit hard contact was the implementation of his two-seam fastball, which has a slightly different profile than that of his other two offerings. I talked to Bill Hezel of Driveline Baseball last year about Ray’s arsenal in-depth, which you can find here.
His two seam was by far his worst offering, but it was different and allowed him to get better results than the pitch actually graded out. I do not expect this pitch to remain in his arsenal unless the movement grades out significantly better in 2023.
Essentially the batted balls against Ray were better in 2022 than his Cy Young season, but his walks were up slightly and he struggled to generate whiffs and get strikeouts as easily in 2022.
There was also another key factor in his decline in 2022, the Houston Astros got the best of him.
There were rumblings around the league that Ray and other Seattle pitchers were tipping pitches, and the Astros had the big lefty figured out. If they did have a tip on him it would make sense, especially because they could easily sit on one of two pitches.
In addition to these rumblings, Ray’s four-seamer velocity was down 1.4 MPH on average in 2022. The combination of all these things could have made him more vulnerable to bad outings.
The Mariners are getting tremendous value from Robbie Ray and his contract, considering he led the team in innings pitched last season. Worse pitchers got contracts with much higher average annual values this offseason, and for the production Ray gave them he was a bargain.
He brings a ton of value as a number three starter with number two upside, and he is a horse. His 189 innings ranked 16th in all of major league baseball, just behind Justin Verlander.
Ultimately I expect Ray to continue this trend and give the Mariners 30 starts in 2023, which is insanely valuable in itself. In addition, I believe he can repeat or be slightly better in 2023 and identify a third offering he can use sparingly to throw teams off his scent.
Ray developed into a big time leader and clubhouse presence, adding to the value he gives this team on the mound. Addressing his struggles against Houston will be a big factor in his performance in 2023, but I expect the veteran to rebound in a big way.
