Three reasons why adding Teoscar Hernández is an upgrade
We have reached the point in the offseason where many have tried to find reasons to say Seattle has not upgraded. Let's take a look at Teoscar Hernández and how he impacts this team.
The trade for Teoscar Hernández was the biggest move of the offseason for the Mariners, but the narrative that he is simply a Mitch Haniger replacement needs to stop. Hernández should be a sizeable upgrade in right field for Seattle this season, let’s look at three reasons why.
1. Availability
The number one reason why adding Hernández is a boost is availability. He has played at least 125 games in every season since 2018. He has played 134, 125, 50 (shortened season), 143, and 131 games in his last 5 seasons. For comparison's sake, Haniger played 157, 63, 157, and 57 games while missing the entire 2020 campaign.
This means that Hernández has a huge advantage in how often he is available, and the injury risks going forward are minimal compared to Haniger. Being two years younger is also a big advantage.
Either player would be asked to be one of the three best hitters in this lineup next year. If you are the Mariners you cannot afford to lose one of the best hitters in the lineup for months at a time if you can avoid it. The former Blue Jay is a much better bet to stay healthy, and a massive upgrade in this regard.
2. Defense
This may be a bit of a stretch, but hear me out. At this point, Mitch Haniger is not a good defender, and as lower body injuries continue to build up he may be sapped of more athleticism.
Haniger was plus 2 Outs Above Average last season according to Baseball Savant but didn’t play in enough games to truly qualify. Hernández was worth -4 Outs Above Average last season but played in more than enough games to qualify.
2021 was the last full season for both players, and Haniger produced -7 OAA compared to -1 for Hernández. Statcast shows Haniger as a worse player based on their Outfield Jump metric as well.
Both players have strong throwing arms, and most would consider this as their best attribute on the field. Hernández outperforms Haniger again here, ranking in the 87th percentile compared to the 79th for Mitch.
At this point in his career, I would take Teoscar Hernández defensively. He is a better athlete and his metrics seem to be better than what you would expect from an aging Mitch Haniger. The difference isn’t huge, but Hernández has a slight edge. While he isn’t a good defender, he certainly isn’t going to cost the Mariners games like Jesse Winker did last year.
3. Offensive Ceiling
Teoscar Hernández is an upgrade over Mitch Haniger at the plate, and it isn’t as close as many think. Over the last three seasons in Toronto, the 30-year-old put up a WRC+ average of 134. His season high was 142 in 2020, which is essentially what Julio Rodríguez did for Seattle last season.
Haniger’s last three seasons on average were 20 points lower than Hernández. His offensive production has undisputedly been better, add this together with more availability and you have a monster offensive upgrade.
Hernández truly has elite batted ball metrics, and you can clearly see this from his Baseball Savant page. We should expect him to be a consistent run producer in the middle of the Seattle lineup and could even be a little better next season.
Overall
Hernández is more than a lateral move for the Mariners. This move adds another bat that is comparable to Julio Rodríguez in this lineup. Having a player who is available is what this team needs, and they haven’t had due to injuries to Haniger and Kyle Lewis over the last few seasons.
The defensive upgrade may be marginal, but the younger more athletic player is a better bet. His offensive production puts him as one of the best right-handed power bats in baseball and a big upgrade for a Seattle team in need of offense.
