Three bold predictions for 2023, final Opening Day roster projection
In today's column I tackle the final Opening Day roster prediction and three bold predictions on Cal Raleigh, Robbie Ray and Jarred Kelenic.
With Opening Day in sight and days in Peoria numbered, I wanted to take a look at one last roster prediction as well as a few bold predictions I have for the upcoming season.
Let’s start with a few bold predictions, because who doesn’t love some insanely optimistic projections late in Spring Training?
1. Cal Raleigh wins a Silver Slugger
Alejandro Kirk took home the American League Silver Slugger last season for the catcher position, but only two players have won it back to back seasons over the last 15 years (Mauer, Perez).
Raleigh has been excellent this Spring and is fully healthy after a thumb injury late last season. Despite early season struggles the 26 year old still posted a 121 WRC+, just 8 points lower than Kirk’s.
If you take out a dreadful April before his demotion to Tacoma, Raleigh posted a 127 WRC+. I believe he can reach this figure or higher in 2023, and having Tom Murphy to protect him should allow the young catcher to flourish once again for the Mariners.
2. Robbie Ray finishes top 3 in AL Cy Young voting
Robbie Ray had somewhat of a disappointing season last year capped off with a crushing defeat at the hands of Yordan Álvarez and the Astros. This offseason Ray made some major adjustments to his workout routine, lifting harder than ever and dropping weight before showing up in Peoria.
Ray’s struggles last year were a result of trouble with Houston and reduced velocity on his four-seamer. He needs the velocity of his fastball to create separation and deception between his offerings, and we have seen every bit of that on display this Spring.
The 31 year old lefty has touched 97 already and has punched out 26 batters in just 17 innings. I believe he can continue this and become a dominant presence in the American League once again.
The Cy Young conversation is wide open in the American League, and I expect Robbie Ray to regain his 2021 form and find himself in the mix by the end of the 2023 season.
3. Jarred Kelenic becomes an above average hitter
An average hitter in major league baseball would have a 100 WRC+. Jarred Kelenic posted a 55 WRC+ last year for the Mariners, so making the jump to average would be huge.
Since he has six years of club control remaining, Jarred Kelenic has an immense ability to impact this team. If he could become an everyday player with an above-average bat, the Mariners can challenge the Astros for the division.
His Spring has been fantastic thus far, but a hot start to the regular season could go a long way for the 23 year old outfielder. Kelenic will be protected by A.J. Pollock against tough lefties, and I think it pays off with a WRC+ somewhere between 100-110.
26-Man Roster Prediction
Starting Pitchers (5)
-Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Marco Gonzales
This group has been set in stone for a while now, and it should be one of the best units in all of baseball. Seattle will get a full season of Castillo and Kirby, plus top prospect Bryce Miller on the way.
Kirby and Gilbert still have a ton of upside, and Robbie Ray looks primed to return to his 2021 form. This is the strength of this team, and I expect them to be even better than last season if they can stay healthy.
Relief Pitchers (8)
-Andrés Muñoz, Paul Sewald, Matt Brash, Diego Castillo, Penn Murfee, Matt Festa, Chris Flexen, Trevor Gott
Justin Topa probably could have been on this list, and if Seattle is able to trade Flexen I would expect Topa to replace him. It will be tricky to get him innings early in the season, but the Mariners need to find a way to use Flexen if they are keeping him on the roster.
This group should be solid, but it doesn’t come without question marks. Muñoz hasn’t pitched much and has gotten knocked around at times, although I expect him to be fine.
Paul Sewald is the biggest concern for me here. After having heel surgeries and a minor cleanup of his elbow, he just hasn’t looked the same this Spring. His slider has been missing consistently, and his fastball doesn’t seem to have the life it had last year. This group needs him to get on track to be as good as it was last year.
The rest of this group is solid, but I don’t see a ton of upside. One pitcher who I believe could return to form is Diego Castillo, who has shown flashes over his career in Seattle.
Matt Festa is another guy with upside in this group, and Seattle really started to trust him at the end of the year. Don’t be surprised if the Mariners IL Sewald to start the season and put Topa on the roster.
Catchers (3)
-Cal Raleigh, Tom Murphy, Cooper Hummel
No surprises here. Hummel has torn it up this Spring, and his versatility is much needed on this roster. His ability to catch will allow the Mariners to DH Murphy or Raleigh more often, and Hummel even showed offensive upside and speed in Peoria.
Getting Murphy back should take a huge load off of Cal Raleigh, especially against left-handed pitching.
Infielders (5)
-Ty France, Kolten Wong, JP Crawford, Eugenio Suárez, Tommy La Stella
This is the only real debate on this roster currently, but I give the edge to La Stella over Mason McCoy. Let me be clear here, I wouldn’t prefer to have either of these players on the roster, but they need to have another infielder here.
McCoy can play shortstop which is a bonus, but ultimately this decision comes down to how JP Crawford feels as the week goes on. Sam Haggerty can fill in during a game at shortstop if needed, but if Crawford’s status is still iffy by Tuesday expect to see McCoy make the team.
La Stella was not impressive early in camp, and never really showed he can play the field after dealing with a shoulder injury for much of camp. I expect him to start the season with the team, but his stint in Seattle may be short.
There is an outside chance the fifth infield spot could go to a player that is not in the organization yet, but for now, I believe it is La Stella because of the lack of concern over JP Crawford’s injury.
Outfielders (5)
-Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, A.J. Pollock, Jarred Kelenic, Sam Haggerty
This should be a strong group with a pretty good amount of depth and configurations to start the year. Haggerty put a strong stamp on this team last year and will get time in the infield as well. He is a winner and a playmaker and should add a lot of value om the bases this year.
Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, and Jarred Kelenic may be the most important bats on this team in 2023.