The deadline strategy becomes more obvious every day
The deadline strategy becomes more obvious every day
What will the Mariners do at the deadline? It becomes more obvious every day.
A few weeks ago I released my trade guide, a massive collection of players across the league with specific analysis on their fit to the Mariners. As I combed through the players that may be available I often thought about whether the guide was a fool’s errand, especially with the painful mediocrity and unpredictability of the team’s performance.
As we sit here on July 20th it has become more clear than ever; while the team is mediocre, nothing about the team’s recent performance should change what they do at the deadline.
I understand the confusion here, as I am sure many of you have been living and dying on every pitch for the past few weeks. The reason we have all been doing this is because you are all smart enough to know it is coming down to crunch time for the Seattle Mariners. This team needed to do something to prove they were worthy of being buyers, and it just hasn’t happened.
The Mariners were always going to be buyers, but most of my hope over the last few weeks was that they could avoid seller territory.
At this point, Seattle should almost certainly sell off a few players at the August 1 deadline. Teoscar Hernández will almost certainly be sold. His performance has been mediocre lately but has shown enough this season to net a nice return, especially in a market that may be starving for impact hitters. While he has been one of their best hitters, it will serve this team better to try and find the future of their outfield.
Paul Sewald, Ty France, Justin Topa, Gabe Speier, and Eugenio Suárez are all names that could be sold. To me, there is value in Sewald as a leader and a consistent back end performer, but his return will likely be too much to pass on. Seattle seemingly makes relievers grow on trees, making this easier to stomach. Topa and Speier have been nice finds, but the team has a lot of reliever depth in the minors to explore.
France and Suárez are interesting. Both players have been mediocre and have struggled for the majority of 2023. France has been especially mediocre on both sides of the ball, posting just a .319 OBP and a 99 wRC+. Suárez has a 105 wRC+ and has been red hot lately, in addition to being one of the best defenders in baseball at his position.
I think France is more likely here because the return he would generate is greater, and finding a replacement is much easier. You can also make the case that France could return to the form of the previous seasons, where he posted a 126 wRC+ or better.
Regardless of what happens, I would expect to see a few of the faces change before the beginning of next month. Players who have been a big part of the last few seasons will likely be shipped away, but not for nothing.
This team has to buy at the deadline, even if it is only just one bigger move. There are only so many player acquisition cycles in major league baseball, and you have to take advantage of each one.
The August deadline is important for the Mariners because they desperately need several different pieces to make this roster complete. A shortstop/second baseman is a non-negotiable, especially with the lack of close minor league options. They need at LEAST one other bat that is 20 percent above league average, probably two or three if they trade Hernández, France, or Suárez.
They don’t need to address all of these spots right now, but they should certainly try to add at least two bats that would contribute to the 2024 team. With the offseason and free agency looking like a weaker class, the Mariners must try to fix some holes as soon as possible.
No longer is it time for the team to settle for mediocrity. Be aggressive and spend resources. If this team is going to be painfully mediocre, be mediocre but with upside and hope for 2024. I am looking for an aggressive streak and persistence to solve the same issues that have plagued this team for three years now.
The Seattle Mariners are going to buy and sell at the deadline. They haven’t shown us anything to indicate the front office should believe in them for 2023, but they have to give this team help. Find bats and be aggressive.
GOMS.
