The ALDS is finally here. But can the Mariners win it?
The ALDS is finally here. But can the Mariners win it?
The ALDS starts Tuesday against the daunting Houston Astros, and we are here to break it all down!
After one of the great comebacks in postseason history, the Mariners will head to Houston to tango with possibly the best team in baseball. If they want their Cinderella story to continue they will have to defeat Houston in the best-of-five series, a tall task against a team they hold a 7-12 record against this season. The odds are stacked against them, but as Eugenio Suárez said, “We got it! I’m ready!”
Starting Pitching
Houston has one of the very best rotations in all of baseball, anchored by Cy Young frontrunner Justin Verlander who went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA in the regular season. They have not announced a game 2 starter but Framber Valdez is the likely choice. Valdez has set the single-season record for quality starts with 25, and will be a tough matchup for a Seattle team that struggles with lefties.
The Astros will have plenty of options outside of their top two, with Christian Javier, Lance McCullers, and Luis Garcia as other options. This gives them plenty of options with length out of their bullpen in case one of their starters falters. Overall this unit was second in baseball in ERA with a 2.90.
The Seattle rotation is nothing to scoff at, especially if Luis Castillo can do anything close to what he did in Toronto. Seattle sits at eighth in major league baseball in starting pitching ERA. Logan Gilbert will get the ball in game 1, and he has performed against Houston this season.
The good news is that Castillo and Gilbert could likely start 4 of the potential 5 games in the series, but where Seattle loses their edge is the other spot. Robbie Ray has been destroyed by Houston this season, and George Kirby is a rookie. The Mariners would be better off throwing Kirby and using Ray out of the bullpen in this series, but it seems unlikely they would do so.
Advantage: Astros (Barely)
Defense
Houston has one of the best defenses in all of baseball, mostly due to the fact that they are incredible up the middle. Jeremy Pena and Martin Maldonado are simply fantastic, and Jake Meyers does a great job in center field. They have playmakers all over the diamond, making the combination with their pitching staff unfair.
One of the biggest strengths of this Mariners team is run prevention. They rank well in defensive WAR according to Fangraphs, and Jesse Winker is not on the roster anymore. Jarred Kelenic is a plus outfielder in that spot, giving Seattle a big boost. Their infield defense is tremendous and their outfield doesn’t kill them, showcasing plus arms that can keep the Astros from getting extra bases. Seattle doesn’t make many mistakes, but Houston is just simply too dynamic.
Advantage: Astros
Offense
This is where Houston’s advantage sets in. Yordan Alvarez is a monster, and his supporting cast is very strong. Although Yuli Gurriel and others have not been as good in 2022, this offense is elite. Seattle will be careful with the big hitters at the top of their order, but as we have seen in the past they need to be careful with their entire lineup. If Houston gets production from Maldonado or anyone else at the bottom of their order Seattle is in big trouble.
Seattle’s offense was fantastic in Toronto against two very good starting pitchers. They will be going up against the best pitching staff in baseball, albeit one they are very familiar with. In six games against Seattle this season Verlander went 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA. If Seattle can find a way to win one of Verlander’s starts they are going to have a good shot, but this offense will need to stay hot if they have any chance.
Advantage: Astros
Bullpen
I am starting to sound like a broken record here, but Houston has the best bullpen in all of baseball. Led by Ryan Pressley and former Mariner Rafael Montero, this bullpen is deep and has horses all the way around. Ryne Stanek is another name to watch for their electric bullpen, which sported a 2.80 ERA in the regular season. Seattle better get to their starting staff, because this bullpen is lights out.
The Seattle bullpen is electric, but in the longer series will need contributions from someone other than Andrés Muñoz. Paul Sewald really struggled in Toronto, Seattle will simply need him to bounce back if they want to beat Houston. Erik Swanson and Matt Brash may need to be used in Sewald’s normal role for now, but this bullpen has horses they can turn to. This team is young and inexperienced, but its bullpen is still the strength of this team.
Advantage: Astros (Barely)
Overall
The Astros might just be the best team in baseball, but the Mariners might be the hottest. While the Astros have the edge at almost every position group if Seattle gets good production from their starting pitchers they can make this series close.
If the first two games in Houston get split, watch out. There will be 47,000 rabid fans in Seattle that haven’t seen postseason baseball in over 20 years. This series could go either way, but I expect Seattle to make things interesting. They have seemed like the team of destiny so far, so we shouldn’t count them out of keeping this ride going. In this matchup, I think Houston still has the advantage this year, although the Mariners can close the gap over the offseason.
Prediction: Astros in 5