Sea Level Trade Deadline Guide

Here is my annual trade deadline guide with fit analysis and profiles for each player. Enjoy, and happy deadline! GOMS!

Welcome to the 2024 Sea Level Trade Deadline Guide! In the past, I have successfully identified some of the best fits and highlighted players they have acquired in each of the last few seasons and off-seasons in my guides. I will continue to add 1-2 profiles per day until the deadline is over. Hopefully, you enjoy it and share it with a friend! GOMS!

Bats

Randy Arozarena

Arozarena is an extremely difficult evaluation, but I would be thrilled if Seattle could acquire him. The right-handed hitting outfielder doesn’t turn 30 until Spring Training in 2025 and has two years remaining after 2024. 

He isn’t having a great year, and Tampa rarely sells low on assets, but the 29-year-old All-Star has essentially been himself since May 1. As of June 24 Arozarena owns a 96 wRC+, but a 134 since May 1. Arozarena doesn’t come without question marks, but he is exactly the type of player this team needs in the middle of their order, specifically in October. He owns a .336/.414/.616 slash line in the postseason. I would expect a decent-sized prospect package, potentially headlined by Tai Peete to be attractive to Tampa. 

Fit: High

Price: Medium

Yandy Díaz

Similar to his Rays teammate, Díaz is a difficult evaluation. The Rays feel like an inevitable trade partner for Seattle in a complex market. Tampa has a surplus of right-handed bats with track records of production in positions of need for Seattle. Díaz is among the best fits on the entire market because of his batted ball data and ability to hit anywhere in the lineup.

The 32 year old first baseman has had a bit of a down year after an All Star appearance and a batting title in 2023. His wRC+ is still a respectable 110, down 54 points from 2023. Much like his teammate Arozarena, Díaz has been himself since May 1. He holds a 133 wRC+ since May 1, and has maintained his extreme hard hit rates for his whole career. While the power numbers and launch angles fluctuate consistently, the contact profile and exit velocities would fit in nicely for Seattle’s strikeout heavy lineup. He is one of my favorite targets for Seattle at the deadline provided Tampa is willing to sell. 

Fit: High

Price: Medium/High

Brandon Lowe

I have long felt like Brandon Lowe was destined to be a Seattle Mariner, and this may just be the year. Lowe is essentially what Seattle hoped to get from Jorge Polanco, but hasn’t received. Despite injury concerns and just 43 games this season, the 30 year old second baseman has continued to rake, slashing .227/.325/.468 for a 126 wRC+.

Lowe is a really good hitter with tons of pop, something Seattle desperately needs to add at this deadline. While he doesn’t hit for a high average, Lowe’s strikeout rates aren’t terrible (26%), and his walk rates are very good (10.5%). He can also play all around the field, including first base and corner outfield. If Seattle acquired him I wouldn’t mind them testing him out at third base as well. Lowe has club options for both 2025 and 2026 and the Rays could be looking to move on.

Brandon Lowe or his teammate Yandy Diaz would be my top picks to become Mariners following the deadline.

Fit: High

Price: Medium

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I have discussed this deadline for the Mariners very consistently in terms of what they need from the offensive players they acquire. They need a mix of ceiling and floor, whether that is one, two, or three players. I believe Vladimir Guerrero Jr. offers the best mix of ceiling and floor of any player that will theoretically be available in this market.

While Vlad hasn’t quite lived up to his billing as a superstar, he does have one MVP-caliber season under his belt and is a four-time All-Star, including a starter at first base in 2024. Vladdy has been as durable as they come, and hasn’t posted a wRC+ under 118 since the shortened 2020 season. His high water mark is 166, and somewhere in the middle would be perfect for the Mariners. I love his fit and Seattle’s fit in a trade with Toronto, who could be interested in a mix of prospects and MLB-ready first baseman Tyler Locklear to replace Vlad Jr.

Fit: High

Price: High

Luis Robert Jr.