Potential landing spots for Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzales.
Potential landing spots for Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzales.
The starting pitching market has taken off this offseason and it doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. This could be a benefit for the Mariners who hold some very important trade chips.
The offseason started quietly but really ticked up with the Winter Meetings this week. We saw many players sign huge multi-year deals, including several starting pitchers getting big-time money. Free Agent pitchers like Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and others received big-money deals over the past week. Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, and Carlos Rodon are big names that have yet to find a home but are expected to get paid big dollars for many years here soon.
These players will eventually sign and the starting pitching on the open market will dry up. Pitching is extremely valuable, and options on the open market are finite. The Mariners have shown interest in Kodai Senga and General Manager Jerry Dipoto even said Senga visited Seattle before the Winter Meetings.
Seattle could opt to spend resources on him but it seems unlikely based on how the market has been this offseason. If the Mariners did decide to bring Senga in it would be a power move, allowing them to steal a pitcher off the market and could then look to move Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen to a team in need.
The Mariners have missed out on many offseason acquisitions offensively and could opt to improve run prevention to make up for it. The way I see it Seattle has three options at the fifth starter, Gonzales, Flexen, or an upgrade like Senga.
I think the Mariners view players like Bryce Miller, Taylor Dollard, and Emerson Hancock as nice starting pitching depth and insurance for injuries, but not real options at the five spot. They also have Matt Brash who could start if needed.
Ultimately I think the Mariners will take a hard look at Senga but wait until later in the offseason to make a move. They have reportedly been interested in Bryan Reynolds and other corner outfield bats and may need to deal with the likes of Miller, Dollard, and Hancock to get this.
Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander will want to make sure they have ample depth at this spot so it becomes likely the move for Senga or an outfielder happens before dealing Flexen or Gonzales.
There are many teams around the league that will be interested in both players, especially Flexen because of his relatively friendly contract and interesting profile. He triggered a vesting option for the 2023 season and is owed just 8 million next season, a relative bargain compared to starting pitching on the market.
Gonzales was much maligned by the fanbase last season but is a very good fifth starter. The Phillies had a strong interest in him at the deadline so it is clear he has some value, and Seattle is very open to moving him and upgrading that spot. He is due 18.5 Million over the next two seasons and has a club option before the 2025 season.
I still believe the most likely outcome is Gonzales returning as the fifth starter because in all likelihood he wouldn’t net a ton in return. However, if this year’s market has shown us anything it is that starting pitching is a hot commodity and every team needs it and should be willing to pay for it.
There are many teams that could use starting pitching and the Mariners have some to give. The Rockies were listed as a suitor early in the offseason and this definitely fits. They aren’t in a position to contend but could use Flexen as a rotation upgrade and an innings eater.
The Royals had miserable starting pitching last season and could use an upgrade here. They have been quiet this offseason as their front office is going through an overhaul, but they will need to add arms to their rotation.
Although they are competition to the Mariners, the Baltimore Orioles are a fit here. They have reportedly been involved in the pitching market this offseason but have failed to secure anything to this point. Baltimore has some corner outfield pieces that could be of interest to Seattle in return.
The Dodgers have been somewhat interesting this offseason, opting to let most of their pieces leave in free agency. They have a number of high-level starting pitchers but each of them comes with availability concerns. Flexen would offer them some reliability and depth, and his profile is one they would likely love to get their hands on.
Pittsburgh could use Flexen as an innings eater next season. Who knows, maybe Seattle finds a way to throw him in a deal for Bryan Reynolds.
The Twins are another team who would seem to partner well with Seattle for either pitcher, and they have pieces that would benefit the Mariners in return. Max Kepler could be a fit for the Mariners in return for a pitcher.
We know Jerry Dipoto is creative and has been willing to trade with San Diego in the past. Would AJ Preller be interested in dealing with the Mariners again after the Austin Nola deal? Only time will tell, but with all the big dollars the Padres have spent it wouldn’t hurt them to get Blake Snell off their books. He has one year remaining and would make sense as a salary dump, with Flexen going to San Diego albeit not as a stand-alone.
Starting Pitching is at a premium this winter, and many people will forget the Mariners hold some pretty nice cards here. I expect Dipoto to get creative and offload Flexen and possibly Gonzales for pieces to help this roster. Watch for Senga to Seattle, but if that doesn’t happen a reactionary move could come from another team to land one of these arms.