Playoff series breakdown and predictions with Ty Dane Gonzalez of Locked On Mariners
21 years of waiting ends tomorrow. I talked to Ty Dane Gonzalez of the Locked On Mariners podcast to break it all down.
After 21 long years the Seattle Mariners have finally made the postseason. The matchup that many Mariners fans wanted to avoid is the one they got, the Toronto Blue Jays.
I sat down with Ty Dane Gonzales of the Locked On Mariners podcast to break down the series and give our predicitions. Check out Locked On Mariners for the best Mariners audio coverage every day!
Offense
Ty- The Blue Jays arguably have the scariest lineup in the entire American League playoff field. Beyond the three-headed monster of George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the top of its order, Toronto features an abundance of firepower with the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Alejandro Kirk, Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield.
It's simply a better lineup than Seattle's, which is still nursing several injuries throughout and has operated in a "boom or bust" fashion for most of the year. The Mariners have proven capable of trading blows in shootouts on the occasion, but it's impossible to predict when it will come.
Advantage: Blue Jays
Ben- The Blue Jays lineup is certainly scary. Their top end talent blows Seattle’s out of the water, with George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladamir Guerrero Jr. leading the charge. The Blue Jays sport the third highest OPS in baseball, and easily a top 3 offense overall. Seattle will need to keep the Toronto in the yard if they have any chance of slowing them down.
Seattle’s offense is much different. They rank 14th in major league baseball in OPS, but it can be a struggle to score runs. The lineup is scrappy and gets on base, but relies too much on home runs to be counted on.
Advantage: Blue Jays
Defense
Ty- This will be fascinating to watch play out. Despite not being an incredibly athletic team, the Mariners' bread and butter in 2022 has been run prevention. They are one of MLB's best from a pure fundamental perspective and rarely make mistakes. That continuing will be critical for the Mariners' chances of advancing to the ALDS, because any misplayed ball will quickly turn the tides in a raucous Rogers Centre.
The Blue Jays also rarely commit errors and have reinforced their defensive ranks since the last time they saw the Mariners with the arrivals of Merrifield and Jackie Bradley Jr. Of course, Chapman is the biggest difference-maker on the hot corner, though his defensive metrics during the regular season were some of the worst of his career. Nevertheless, don't be surprised if he flashes the leather in an impactful way at some point during this series.
Advantage: Push
The Blue Jays defense is near the middle of the pack in all of major league baseball. It was a much bigger issue last season but the additions of Matt Chapman and others have fixed this. They do have some holes, but overall the defense is solid. Fangraphs has them listed at 2.6 WAR defensively, good enough for 13th in the MLB.
One of the greatest strengths of this Mariners team is run prevention. They rank 10th in baseball with 6.0 WAR according to Fangraphs, but much of this is dragged down by Jesse Winker’s abysmal performance. Jarred Kelenic is a plus outfielder in that spot, giving Seattle a big boost. Seattle doesn’t make many mistakes, and this gives them the edge here.
Advantage: Mariners
Starting Pitching
Alek Manoah versus Luis Castillo is going to be an incredible matchup in the first game of the series—one that I don't think gives one team an advantage over the other.
The key will be game two, with Robbie Ray set to take the bump opposite... well, the Blue Jays have yet to announce their starter. Those who cover Toronto have speculated it could be Ross Stripling getting the ball over Kevin Gausman, who's currently dealing with a cut on his right middle finger.
Even with Ray's struggles as of late and the Blue Jays' righty-heavy lineup, it's hard not to feel like the Mariners would have the upper hand if Stripling indeed goes. Make no mistake: Stripling has quietly been one of the most efficient starters in the AL this year and has playoff experience from his days with the Dodgers, but he's just not of the caliber of Gausman.
Now, if this series goes to a third game and Gausman is called upon, it doesn't matter to me who the Mariners choose between George Kirby and Logan Gilbert—the Blue Jays would have the clear advantage. No matter how effective Kirby and Gilbert have been as of late, these are two incredibly young pitchers getting their first taste of the postseason in an elimination game in front of a sold-out, hostile environment.
Advantage: Blue Jays
Ben- Luis Castillo was a huge addition for the Mariners at the trade deadline, and gives Seattle an ace who can matchup with Alek Manoah who is fantastic. Robbie Ray is not a great matchup against his former team, but the Mariners could still have the advantage here if Kevin Gausman can’t pitch with his finger injury.
Ray threw extremely well against Toronto in July, and Seattle acquired him to pitch at the top of their rotation in the playoffs. If he can avoid the longball, Seattle has the advantage especially if Toronto is forced to go with Stripling. Stripling is no pushover however, and the Mariners third starter will be either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby who are both very young pitchers.
If Gausman and Manoah pitch in this series Toronto has the advantage, especially with Robbie Ray’s struggles of late.
Advantage: Blue Jays (barely)
Bullpen
Ty- The Blue Jays' bullpen was a mess for most of the 2022 campaign, but with some midsummer additions, it's turned things around. In fact, it has statistically been a better bullpen across the board than the Mariners for the last month or so, but I'm still giving the advantage to Seattle here.
Scott Servais has a diverse group of arms in his stable, giving him plenty of levers to pull in order to create unique and difficult matchups for one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. If the Mariners win this series, it will be because the likes of Andres Munoz, Paul Sewald, Matt Brash and Erik Swanson continued to do what they've done all year.
Advantage: Mariners
Ben- The Blue Jays bullpen is the weakness of this team. They have been pitching much better as of late, but it has clearly been an issue for them at times. Jordan Romano is an elite arm, and Adam Cimber can be devastating in ground ball situations but after that there is a drop off. Relief pitcher Anthony Bass took to social media to express his distaste for Paul Sewald’s celebration after the sweep in July, so maybe they will attempt to use this as bulletin board material.
Seattle has an assorment of guys in the bullpen, which is one of the deepest units in the entire league. If Seattle can muster enough offense to score early, they have the horses to carry home a series win. Andrés Muñoz and Paul Sewald are fantastic and will lead the charge for Seattle.
Advantage: Mariners
Overall
Ty- Mariners in 3
Ben- Mariners in 3