Mariners Trade Guide
Mariners Trade Guide
60 player profiles, fit analysis, cost, and much more here at Sea Level.
(Photo via Joe Nicholson USA Today Sports)
Ah, yes the trade deadline is back. That time of the year where we spend every second glued to our phones waiting for the latest Jeff Passan bomb is upon us, but what should we expect from the Seattle Mariners?
From the time I started putting the guide together a lot has changed for the Mariners. They are currently a few games under .500 with more than half the season to go, but things certainly don’t look promising. About the only shred of hope we could have is that there have been several teams almost in an identical spot to Seattle’s right now that have made deep playoff runs in the past few seasons (see the Atlanta Braves or Philidelphia Phillies).
The Mariners aren’t good right now, and they know that. They won’t turn things around by trading for players. The players on the roster have to play better before this team can be for real, and then the supplementary pieces push you over the top.
I want to reiterate that not every player in this guide is realistic for the Mariners, and there is a real chance they may acquire none of them. I did my best to put together a list of players in one of the most confusing buyer/seller markets we have seen in a long time.
Seattle has a few clear needs but the under performance of this roster has put things in a tough position, what will they do? From where we sit right now I have some ideas.
I believe they will buy and sell, and there are a few key names to discuss. Teoscar Hernandez, Ty France, Paul Sewald, Bryan Woo, and any relievers not named Andrés Muñoz could be candidates to be moved. In my opinion Seattle needs to make the Luis Castillo move of bats if it exists, and may make a seller’s move similar to the Austin Nola trade of 2020.
Seattle has thrived off of acquiring older prospects that fit their models and timeline, France, Crawford, Haniger, and many more fit this mold. I could see the Mariners adding a young bat in that mold, especially if they are still under .500 at the deadline.
I believe they will try to add an impact bat, but there is no telling if that player exists. They need to get a controllable impact bat to add to the top of the lineup, preferably a higher contact player.
How much they sell depends what they do in the next 27 games. I believe they need to win 15-16 of them to be convinced being aggressive is anywhere close to a good idea. Enough talking, let’s take a look at my 2023 Mariners Trade Deadline Guide.
(I ranked by top 10 favorite candidates at the end, left off Yasztremski and Wade Jr. because of San Francisco’s unlikelihood to sell.)
Jonathan India
India is essentially the Luis Castillo of last season, both in fit and cost. He also plays for the Cincinnati Reds, Castillo’s former club and a preferred trade partner of Jerry Dipoto over the last few seasons.
At 26 years old, the second baseman is in the midst of a great offensive season and really seems to be back to the 2021 version we saw. He carries an above-average walk rate and well below-average strikeout rate, making him a “Control the Zone” player. India is less of a power bat and more of a gap-to-gap type hitter, which could be a nice addition to the Seattle lineup.
His defense is the big question mark here, although Fangraphs has him right around neutral for his defensive value thus far in 2023. He ranks in the 37th percentile in Outs Above Average this season, and I believe his long-term position is likely third base. This wouldn’t be a problem in Seattle, therefore the fit should be pretty high.
The cost here may be too much for the Mariners. Jonatan Clase and a whole bunch more would need to go for Seattle to get their man here, but we will see what Trader Jerry can do.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
JD Davis
JD Davis is a tremendous fit on this Mariners’ roster, the only question is will San Francisco sell? At this point, it doesn’t seem likely, but the roster is loaded with great fits for the Mariners and Davis may be chief among them.
A corner infielder who has also played corner outfield, Davis has spent most of his 2023 season playing third base in the bay. His defense is well below average basically anywhere you put him, but the bat does more than enough to make up for it.
Davis was a high strikeout player in 2021 and 2022, but this figure dropped significantly in 2023. His strikeouts are down 7-8%, a huge boost for a player that already walks at a better than league average rate.
The 30-year-old would provide some serious offense and a year of control beyond this one. His bat has played well above league average in terms of wRC+ for years, and his 2023 performance suggests his bat can still be really impactful. It is unsure what he would cost but he would be affordable for Seattle if the Giants do decide to sell.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- High
Paul DeJong
Paul DeJong is an interesting player on a team that should already be retooling for next season. 2023 has not gone as planned for the Cardinals, but DeJong has bounced back so far after a disappointing 2022 season.
After a demotion and losing his job, the 29 year old shortstop has bounced back to almost exactly his career averages. His bat has basically always hovered around a 100 wRC+, despite pedestrian batted ball metrics.
DeJong is a terrific defensive shortstop, one of the best in all of baseball. A well-above-average glove and an average bat is a useful player, but I don’t love the fit for Seattle. DeJong strikes out too much for a player that doesn’t do enough damage, and this profile doesn’t fit what the Mariners need at the deadline.
In my opinion, they should just stick with Jose Caballero or Dylan Moore here, although having a veteran like DeJong wouldn’t be the worst thing.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium
Lars Nootbar
Lars Nootbar seems to have become a popular name for Mariners fans to discuss and for good reason. The 25-year-old outfielder has become a terrific player on both sides of the ball and is also known as a terrific clubhouse presence.
Before I talk anymore about Nootbar let me be clear; I do not think the Cardinals are going to trade him. I also don’t think the Mariners could afford him without giving up Bryce Miller or Logan Gilbert, which is just a nonstarter for the Mariners.
The St. Louis roster is ready to compete outside of their pitching and should be retooling for next season. Nootbar is a significant part of their offensive future and still has 4 years of club control after this one.
As I mentioned he is a terrific defender who can handle center field, and his left-handed bat would fit well in the Mariners lineup. He could easily be a perennial 4-5 win player, and his ability to control the zone would have Jerry Dipoto and company excited.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Jake Cronenworth
Cronenworth fits everything that Jerry Dipoto described and may be the perfect fit to fill a second base hole that has consistently plagued Seattle. Cronenworth is a player you wouldn’t necessarily think is available while being a versatile defender who could slot in all over the diamond.
My guess is Seattle would want to use him at second base mostly, but he has played a ton of first base in San Diego. The 29-year-old is a well-rounded lefty bat who has three full seasons of above-average production.
Cronenworth has posted a K% below 20 percent in each of his three full seasons, while also posting a walk rate that is above league average. He carries 15-25 home run potential, with his career-high being 21.
His bat profiles very similarly to a left-handed Ty France, with above-average defense at second base. Cronenworth would likely be very expensive but is the type of player that would be worth it.
Cronenworth will have two years of club control following the 2023 season. It is anybody’s guess what the Padres would want in return, but the cost could certainly be prohibitive.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Christian Walker
Christian Walker is a player who I have liked for quite some time now, but his fit on the roster has been murky. Walker is a first base/DH type who could probably stand at a corner outfield spot if you needed to get his bat in the lineup.
Walker is 32 years of age and has one year remaining after this one. Walker is a right-handed power bat and would be a logical replacement for Teoscar Hernández when he inevitably leaves in free agency after the season.
While I prefer a left-handed bat, Walker is productive against both lefties and righties. He destroys left-handed pitching, posting a 175 WRC+ against Southpaws this season. The former Gold Glove award winner would immediately slide into the first base/DH rotation.
Walker also earns brownie points for his low strikeout rate and league-average walk rate. The Diamondbacks have been in and out of first place in the NL West, so the next 30-40 games could determine whether or not they are willing to part with him.
He is unlikely to get an extension because of his age, making the fit with Arizona questionable moving forward. Walker owns a career 108 WRC+.
Price- High
Team Fit- Medium
Brandon Lowe
In my interview with Ty Dane Gonzalez of Locked on Mariners, we discussed our favorite trade fits for the Mariners this summer. Ty chose Brandon Lowe as his favorite, and while I didn’t particularly agree, he does make a compelling case.
Lowe is a left-handed hitter that walks at a rate well above league average but is also posting career highs in K% this season. A 31 percent strikeout rate is a hard thing to sell to a team on pace with 4 players set to strike out 185 plus times this season.
Lowe is a great fit outside of his low-contact profile. A power lefty bat, the 28 year old owns a career 126 wRC+. The last two seasons have been much different for him, posting a 99 wRC+ through June 22 after a 104 last season.
He has a serious track record of success over his first four seasons in the big leagues, and may not cost too much right now. He also offers control and a ton of versatility, two things we know this front office loves. He could be the new version of Eugenio Suarez for this team.
Lowe is not set to become a free agent until 2027, making him a cheap and productive option for the Rays’ foreseeable future. They have a loaded middle infield talent-wise, with players like Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, and Vidal Brujan on their roster.
Lowe has posted a WRC+ above 110 in every season except 2022 and blasted 39 home runs in 2021. This is exactly the type of guy I would love to see Seattle jump on for a reliever or two. Tampa is a great match in a deal with Seattle this offseason because of their need for relievers, so don’t be surprised if something gets done here.
Price- Medium/Low
Team Fit- High
Alex Verdugo
Verdugo is a 27 year old left handed hitter with some upside still and has been a really nice player over his time in Boston. While he hasn’t and won’t live up to the high expectations of being the player traded for Mookie Betts, he has built himself into a very good player.
Verdugo owns a career wRC+ of 109 and is having a career year in 2023. As of June 18, the outfielder has posted a 123 wRC+ and already owns the highest fWAR of his career at 2.1.
A good defensive outfielder, the Arizona native ranks in the 78th percentile in Outs Above Average according to Baseball Savant. His Baseball Savant page is littered with red, most notably in two categories that Jerry Dipoto loves.
Verdugo owns a K% in the 93rd percentile while also owning a walk rate that is above league average. The only potential concern here is character concerns that have been whispered in the past, but otherwise, his candidacy for Seattle is very strong.
He will be a free agent in 2025, so he likely wouldn’t break the bank.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- High
Eloy Jiménez
Eloy Jiménez is a big-time bat, although admittedly I think the interest is going to be low here. A big-time power bat, Jiménez has actually posted K% that is below league average.
Jiménez has only posted a 109 WRC+ as of mid-June, but his career number is 122. While his production is above average, he has posted low walk rates throughout his career.
Jiménez as a defender offers no value, in fact, he is one of the worst defenders in the league. I don’t see the fit here for the Mariners.
While still just 26, his injury concerns and lack of positional flexibility are a big downer for me. I think Seattle will likely look elsewhere.
Price- Medium/High
Team Fit- Low
Jeimer Candelario
Candelario is one of the best fits on this roster on the market and was an intriguing option to me last offseason before signing with Washington. The 29-year-old infielder is a rental option, one that is having a terrific season.
A 2.2 fWAR player already in mid-June, Candelario has posted an above-average wRC+ and good defensive and offensive value this season. He can play both corner infield spots and actually plays a really nice third base. As a switch hitter, he would be an excellent option to add balance to the lineup and mix into the corner infield/DH mix.
Jerry Dipoto and this front office have never really had an interest in rentals, but this could be a fit. He is better from the left side and could be a candidate for the team to re-sign in the off-season.
Price- Medium/Low
Team Fit- High
Anthony Santander
Anthony Santander and teammate Cedric Mullins have been long-time favorites of mine when it comes to trade targets for Seattle. The caveat here is that the Baltimore Orioles is a contender in the American League, vying for a spot with the Mariners.
So far this year the 28-year-old switch hitter has been who he was last year, posting a 119 wRC+ as of June 20. He very well could be cheaper than someone like Seth Brown, as next year will be his final year of club control. Baltimore could look to move him regardless of success if the price is right, with a farm system as loaded as theirs.
Santander walked at about a league-average rate while striking out very little last season. He is an average hitter over the course of his career against right-handed pitching but does damage against lefties. The 28-year-old owns a 112 WRC+ against lefties but could be a much-needed power bat who carries the ability to balance the lineup against right-handers.
He would be a great fit in this lineup, the only question is how could Seattle get this done? Baltimore would likely want starting pitching, so I don’t know if I see a match here unless a three-team deal can get done.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- High
Cedric Mullins
Mullins is an everyday, impact centerfielder who would be a tremendous addition to the Mariners’ roster. He is a left handed hitter who plays a plus outfield and is still just 28 years old.
After breaking onto the scene in 2021 with a 5.9 fWAR season, Mullins fell back down to earth in 2022 but was still a terrific player. He looks much more like the 2021 version of himself so far this season, posting a 133 wRC+ before recently hitting the IL with a groin injury.
Mullins would be a great addition to this roster, except he would be extremely expensive and it is feasible that Baltimore would want to extend him. I can’t see a deal getting done here unless three teams are involved, or Seattle is going to deal one of their starting pitchers to Baltimore.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Joc Pederson
Pederson is a player that has fit this Seattle roster for a long time and may be exactly the type of postseason acquisition this team needs. He is playing on the qualifying offer this season, meaning he is owed nearly 20 million dollars this year and will be a free agent next offseason.
The 31-year-old outfielder has a history of playoff production, including a 2021 run that was dubbed “Joctober.” He does little to help you defensively, but his left-handed bat has a long history of production.
Pederson has walked at a league-average rate or above every season since his arrival and posted a 144 WRC+ last season. So far this year before being placed on the injured list he posted a 137 WRC+, while primarily being used against righties.
The Giants have a boatload of players that would fit Seattle perfectly, but the only problem is they aren’t losing. Pederson is a free agent and a platoon bat, which could mean San Francisco would move him in some sort of lateral movement. Unless San Francisco falls back to earth, it is hard to see them not being buyers.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- High
Michael Conforto
Perderson’s teammate could also be an excellent fit in Seattle. The Mariners need balance in their lineup and players who could excel in T-Mobile Park. Sources have told me that Seattle and Conforto had contract talks this offseason, but interest wasn’t necessarily strong from either side partially due to the fact that he wanted a two-year deal.
Conforto is an Oregon State grad and a Seattle native and also lives near the Mariners’ spring training home. While he missed last season, Conforto carries the upside to be a well-above-average hitter. He owns a career 123 wRC+.
A left handed hitter with plus power and a 109 wRC+ would help this team out tremendously, and San Francisco could be willing to move him if they think he will opt out after the season. He would be a tremendous fit and an extension candidate if the Mariners acquired him.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- High
Seth Brown
Seth Brown is a really interesting guy who fits the Mariners production-wise and positionally. Unfortunately, Brown played just eight games and was placed on the injured list with an oblique injury that sidelined him for 6 weeks. He has posted just a 74 wRC+ since his return.
While Brown was not off to a good start to his 2023 campaign, he was one of the best hitters in all of baseball during the second half of last season. From August 24 to the end of the season, the 30-year-old outfielder posted a 142 WRC+ with 8 home runs.
He finished the 2022 season with 1.8 fWAR and a 117 WRC+. As a left-handed hitter and a corner outfielder that plays first base, he fits this team perfectly.
The Mariners will be competing with the fact that Oakland is a division rival and one that has been stingy in trade talks before. If he can get healthy and show the ability to produce, there is almost no doubt the A’s would like to move him.
He will likely be expensive as he hasn’t yet hit arbitration, and the divisional price may lead Seattle away from him as a target.
Price- Medium/High
Team Fit- High
Gleyber Torres
Gleyber Torres being acquired by the Mariners is about as predictable as it gets. Jerry Dipoto loves former top prospects, and we know they had an interest in trading for him over the offseason.
Torres is only 26 years old and will be entering the final year of his contract in 2024. He is in his sixth year of average to above-average production at the second base position, posting a career WRC+ of 114.
All of this makes him a prime trade candidate for Seattle to acquire and extend, immediately slotting in as the second baseman for this contention window. Torres is an excellent fit in many ways, including his bat-to-ball skills.
Torres walks at an above-average rate while rarely striking out. His K% is only 12.6 percent this season, good enough for the 93rd percentile of all hitters.
The Venezuelan infielder is an excellent fit but isn’t a great defender at second base. His defense ranks in just the 23rd percentile according to Baseball Savant.
The Yankees could certainly use bullpen or lineup help, and have a few viable replacements in-house if they are interested in a lateral move.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Oswald Peraza
Peraza is a young player without much big league success, but the match between the Yankees and the Mariners is undeniable. New York has a real need for bullpen and offense, and Teoscar Hernandez would be a perfect fit.
Peraza doesn’t strike out much and has produced at every level of the minor leagues, including this season in AAA where he is slashing .275/.345/.529. The 23 year old is a contact bat, plus runner, and plus glove up the middle. My only question is the hit tool, although he has produced throughout his time in the minors.
He would be a better and more interesting option than anyone else Seattle has at second base.
Price- Medium/High
Team Fit- High
LaMonte Wade Jr.
LaMonte Wade Jr. is having a huge year in San Francisco, posting a career year at age 29. If I could point at Jonah Hill’s character in Moneyball to describe Wade Jr. I would, because he just gets on base.
The left-handed hitter is walking at a 17.9 percent clip, which certainly isn’t sustainable. This has a lot to do with his inflated WRC+, but Wade Jr. has always had a discerning eye at the plate.
Wade Jr. is a decent defender at both first base and the outfield but isn’t going to move the needle much there. His bat would add contact and balance to the lineup while giving them a controllable bat for two more years following 2023.
The big concern with LaMonte Wade Jr. has always been health. He dealt with injury issues last season, posting just a 93 WRC+. He could be a nice addition if the price tag isn’t too high.
He is one of my favorite targets on the entire list, and I believe he may be the exact type of player Seattle needs. I doubt San Francisco would move him right now, although his value may never be higher.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Mike Yastrzemski
Mike Yastrzemski is one of my favorite fits of any player Seattle could theoretically acquire, and one I will talk/write about many times ahead of the August 1 deadline. At 33 years old, Yastrzemski has two years of club control remaining after 2023.
While the age is slightly concerning, “Yaz” is a really good fit for Seattle. The grandson of Red Sox legend Carl Yastrzemski, Mike was drafted by the Mariners in 2012 but decided to attend Vanderbilt instead.
The former Commodore has been a mainstay in the San Francisco outfield since 2019, posting a 113 WRC+ over his career so far. The left-handed outfielder strikes out around 25 percent while walking at a league average mark or above over his career.
Yastrzemski can play all three outfield spots and is actually a plus center field defender. One reason why Dipoto and Hollander would love him is his tremendous ability to control the zone.
The outfielder ranks in the 97th percentile of chase rate and walks above league average for his career. He would fit in nicely with the outfield/DH rotation and would add length and balance to a lineup that is very right-handed. His fit is excellent, but it is hard to know what kind of price the Giants would be asking.
It is also worth mentioning that San Francisco is currently in contention, but it is fair to wonder how long that will last in the NL West.
Price- Medium/High
Team Fit- High
Jonathan Aranda
This move wouldn’t be categorized as a “win now” move, but it may be where Seattle is headed. Last offseason it was mentioned that the Rays could be interested in moving on from Jonathan Aranda, Vidal Bruján, or Taylor Walls. Aranda is my favorite of the three, and the one that fits best on this current Mariners roster.
Aranda played all over the diamond last season for the Rays, mostly at second base, third base, and first base. This is a profile that could fit very well on this team, as the front office has expressed their desire for a corner infielder.
Aranda is basically a left-handed version of Ty France at least in the minor leagues. He has a massive hit tool and the ability to get on base at an extremely high level. The 24-year-old has dominated at every level with his bat, making him an excellent upside play for Seattle.
He shouldn’t be a second baseman but would be much better suited for the corners. This is a role Tampa already has Yandy Diaz for, so they could be motivated to move on from Aranda to fill another roster hole.
I love Aranda and think he could be a real, under-the-radar option for the Mariners.
Price- Medium/Low
Team Fit- High
Jorge Polanco
Dipoto typically does something that few would expect, which led me to think Jorge Polanco could be on Seattle’s radar. Polanco is a 29-year-old middle infielder for the Minnesota Twins, and in my opinion, is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Polanco has battled injuries in 2023 once again, a concerning trend for him.
He is just 29 years old and has after signing an extension still has two years remaining on his deal following 2023. The Dominican infielder has played since 2015 for Minnesota, having accrued just over six years of MLB service time. Edouard Julien has been terrific for the Twins this year, and with Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Austin Martin in the picture, Minnesota could look to move him.
While his shortened 2020 was a down year, Polanco has been at least a 111 WRC+ every year since 2018. He is a well above-average bat, even if he hit .235 last season. Despite a low average, Polanco ranks in the 91st percentile of xwOBA in 2022, meaning his output could have and should have been much higher.
Polanco has also had a few seasons with good power production, and you could likely pencil him in for 15-25 home runs a year. In 2022 Polanco ranked in the 98th percentile of BB% and a K% of just 21.3%.
He is elite at controlling the strike zone and getting on base while providing power and an above-average bat. The Seattle front office no doubt would love his profile, it would be interesting to see if Minnesota would move him.
He has played shortstop in the past but seems to be settled as a second baseman for the future. This is exactly the type of under-the-radar move Jerry Dipoto loves to make. It is unclear how the two teams would match up via trade unless Seattle would move someone like Teoscar Hernandez and more for him, Minnesota needs offense.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Willy Adames
Willy Adames was a former top prospect in baseball, and although he has never reached his billing is still a very good player. Adames was traded to Milwaukee just 20 games into the 2021 season and exploded once he got to Milwaukee. He is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, ranking in the 97th percentile in Outs Above Average in 2022.
Adames has struggled mightily at the plate this season but has started to heat up lately.
Adames is not as good offensively as someone like Xander Bogaerts or Carlos Correa but he isn’t far off. He hit 31 home runs in 2022 while slugging .458 and putting up a 109 WRC+. Two seasons in a row he has put up a WRC+ well above 100, after a 120 in 2021. His on base is relatively low compared to what the Mariners typically prefer, but the bat is still just as productive.
The 27 year old and his contract both fit well within the Seattle timeline. Adames has a year of control remaining, making him an attractive option for the Mariners. His teammate Luis Urías is also an option in the same thought process, although Adames has been a tick or two better.
It is not clear if the Brewers would trade him, but they could look to move him or Urías to Seattle to improve other weak areas of their team. The Brewers are similar to the Rays in trading players before free agency, so this is something to keep an eye on.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Luis Urias
For the last two seasons, Luis Urias has looked like an above-average everyday second baseman in the major leagues, posting a 111 wRC+ between 2021-2022. His 2023 in Milwaukee has been abysmal, however, and the Brewers may look to move on to address other areas of the roster.
Urias is still just 26 years old and has the backing of being a former top prospect. There is a ton that makes me believe Seattle would love this player, it comes down to whether or not the Brewers would move on.
The 26-year-old can play any of the infield spots well and is considered at least an average defender. He has posted above-average walk rates in every season so far and has been above 10 percent consistently since 2021. Urias also carries low strikeout rates and has shown plenty of power in the past, with 23 home runs in 2021 and 16 in 2022.
His ability to control the zone is what makes him a target for me. Urias is having a rough season, but his BABIP is just .179, which suggests he has had some bad luck.
The infielder isn’t a free agent until 2026 and could be a huge impact on this team until then.
Price- Medium/High
Team Fit- High
Josh Naylor
Josh Naylor is a left handed first baseman for the Cleveland Guardians who could also stand at a corner outfield spot if needed. The tricky part is that Cleveland’s offense is horrendous, and they are only one game out of first place on June 22. I would probably expect Cleveland to hold onto Naylor and try to add offense.
Nevertheless, Naylor is a great fit on this roster. A left-handed hitter that would add balance to this lineup, the 26 year old owns a career 103 wRC+ and a 116 over the last two seasons.
While he walks at well below average rates, Naylor has posted a K% of just 15.8 percent this season. His on-base percentage is a career high .338 so far this season, and he handles right-handed pitching very well.
I don’t believe Cleveland would move on from him, but Naylor fits well on this roster. Never count out the Guardians from doing something weird at the deadline.
Price- Medium/High
Team Fit- High
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon is a lot like Brandon Lowe in his fit with this team, but the track record is much shakier. The 28 year old infielder owns a career wRC+ of just 92, with this year being the high water mark for his career so far.
The good news is, McMahon is having a career year and doing most of his damage away from Coors Field. He owns a 116 wRC+ on the road this season.
I don’t love the track record here, especially for a Mariners team that needs proven commodities on that side of the ball.
McMahon also strikes out above 30 percent, a common theme on the current Mariners team. You would like to add a little more contact here, but McMahon may also be one of the best defensive third basemen in all of baseball. In addition, he can play a decent second base, making him an appealing option for Seattle.
Price- Medium/High
Team Fit- High
Carlos Santana
A Mariners legend after acquiring him last June, Santana could once again return to Seattle to spark the Mariners into contention. After being signed by the Pirates in the offseason, Santana has played in 65 games and hit six home runs this season.
His wRC+ is very similar to last year through this point at an 87. Santana has a long track record of success and is a great fit in this clubhouse.
I got a chance to witness Santana’s leadership firsthand last year, and this team could really use a presence like his. His production isn’t going to wow you, but much about Santana’s value doesn’t show up in the box score.
Seattle acquiring him as a secondary bench bat would help the DH spot and add valuable leadership for almost no cost. If the Mariners are in contention I would love this move as a secondary deadline bat.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium
TJ Friedl
The Cincinnati Reds have skyrocketed into contender status in the NL Central, but they could look to make some moves to improve their roster both this year and in the future. TJ Friedl is having a career year, and may not be involved in the long term plans of this team.
A 70 grade runner with good contact skills from the left side, Friedl is having a career year and is on pace to play the most games of his short MLB career.
Below-average strikeout rates and average walk rates make him an interesting target and a great fit for this lineup. Additionally, Friedl is a left-handed hitter giving him extra value as a fit here.
Friedl is a nice player that doesn’t hit the ball hard at all, and there is a lot of evidence that would say he is due for regression.
He isn’t a free agent until 2029, which is a ton of control over a player who doesn’t necessarily have a huge upside. I don’t see Cincinnati moving him this season unless they fall off, but he is an interesting target nonetheless.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger was an interesting offseason target who now seems like an excellent fit on this roster. A former MVP, Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers following a dismal 2022 campaign.
Still just 27 years old, Bellinger seems to have turned things around this year in the windy city. Bellinger has hit 7 home runs, posted a 105 wRC+, and dropped his strikeout percentage by 7 percent this season. A plus centerfielder who can also play first base, he is a unique athlete who provides a lot of defensive value in at least four different spots.
Bellinger has just a 20 percent strikeout rate while walking at a league-average clip this year. He has posted a 162 wRC+ against lefties and a 73 against righties, which is strange. Overall his ability to play first base and the outfield, while also providing above average offense and baserunning makes him an interesting target. The Cubs should almost certainly sell this summer. He has a mutual option for the 2024 season, so this could be a rental.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- High
Max Kepler
His overall numbers are not pretty. Kepler slashed .226/.318/.348 last season with just 9 home runs, a down year compared to much of his MLB career. His average is below the Mendoza line this season, and his wRC+ is just 86 as of June 27.
The 29-year-old outfielder offered little to no power in 2022, which was my biggest concern when evaluating him. After slugging .519 in 2019, Kepler dipped all the way down to .348 in 2022 and .404 in 2023.
Although the lack of slugging is somewhat concerning, there is some reason for optimism.
Kepler posted his lowest fly ball percentage of his entire career, with his ground ball rate also skyrocketing. He continued to hit the ball as hard as he used to, just not nearly with the same loft.
The German outfielder’s launch angle was just 11.2 in 2022, the lowest of his career in a full season. His exit velocities remained steady, but the lack of loft lead to fewer extra-base hits. This could easily go back up next season and would be a relatively easy fix to add an instant increase in slugging.
He would be an upside buy and doesn’t have the type of track record that would make this an inspiring deadline move. He is a tremendous defender and could fit in nicely all over the Seattle outfield, and Minnesota may want to move him to get bullpen help.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium
Tyler O’Neill
We know Seattle has talked to St. Louis regarding Tyler O’Neill several times in the last calendar year. I don’t believe there is much of a fit here, but if you imagine a roster without Teoscar Hernandez on it in 2024 O’Neill might be a good fit. He has a year left of club control after this one and needs to stay healthy in order to cash in for the 2025 offseason.
O’Neill is also injured again, and is currently on the 60 day IL but should be nearing a rehab stint. Still just 28 years old, the former Seattle farmhand has tantalizing physical tools.
He runs well, defends well, and hits for power. The biggest hiccup in his game is the swing and miss, something Seattle already has plenty of in the lineup. After a 144 wRC+ in 2021, he has crashed back to earth with a 101 in 2022 and a 73 so far this year.
His strikeout rates have mostly been over 30%, even in his productive seasons. I don’t see a great fit here unless you can get him for cheap, because he would essentially be a flyer for next season. If the team parts ways with Hernandez at the deadline I wouldn’t hate the addition of O’Neill for Seattle.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium
Tim Anderson
Tim Anderson would likely be one of the most expensive players if Chicago decided to move him at this year's deadline. He is also one of the most impactful middle infielders in all of baseball when he is right, and someone Seattle should definitely try to acquire.
Anderson is having a down year, but so is everyone who plays for the White Sox outside of Luis Robert. Anderson has just a 50 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR this season while battling injuries.
On top of that, Anderson hasn’t hit a single home run in 2023. Never a high BB% player, Anderson is walking at just a 5.1 percent clip. He is still just 30 years old, so it is reasonable to believe he is just having a down year due to some nagging injuries.
Anderson did experience a significant drop in slugging percentage in 2022, and his wRC+ fell all the way to 110. He will be very expensive, and Seattle may not even have the ammunition to acquire him.
I would guess some combination of Bryan Woo, Harry Ford, and Jonatan Clase may get you in the door. If I had to guess Seattle will let another team take this chance. Anderson has some troubling data behind his struggles, making him risky for his price tag.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Lane Thomas
Writing this the night after he twisted the knife on the Mariners in extra innings stings a little bit, but here we go. Thomas is having a terrific year and is probably one of the most likely players to get moved by this deadline.
Thomas is having a career year in DC, posting a 131 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR so far. He normally plays right field but has handled center field well in the past. For the most part during his career Thomas has been a part time player, but this year he is having a prime A.J. Pollock type season.
He doesn’t walk much so you have to believe in his .299 average if you want his OBP. At the very least Thomas destroys left handed pitching to the tune of a 146 career wRC+, compared to 89 against right handers.
Still just 27 years old, the outfielder will be a free agent going in 2026. I think there is a fit here, although you would be buying very high. I am not convinced Thomas is an everyday player.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium
Mark Canha
Rabbit stew everybody. Mark Canha is a player that many Mariner fans liked in the offseason before 2022, before eventually signing a 3 year deal with the Mets. Canha fits this team in so many ways and would be a welcomed addition to a Seattle lineup in desperate need of contact and on-base skills.
The 34-year-old is in the second year of his deal with the Mets, and while he isn’t a star, Canha has continued to be a solid big league regular. A 104 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR so far in 2023 has been a bit of regression from the 128 he posted last season.
I have always been a big fan of Canha’s game and versatility. He can play both corner infield spots and both corner outfield spots, as well as give you enough offense to spend some days at DH. The veteran owns a career strikeout percentage of just 21 percent and a career walk rate of over 10 percent.
While he doesn’t offer a lot of slugging, Canha is a very solid fit on this roster. He is an aging player having a down year, so now is either a very good or very risky time to strike. He fits very well in this lineup and on this roster.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- High
Brent Rooker
Rooker has burst onto the scene this year for the dismal Oakland Athletics and may be their biggest trade chip at the deadline. Rooker is a corner outfield bat who can also play first base and DH.
He is a big right-handed hitter with some serious pop and on-base skills. His 2023 season has been a breakout for him at age 28, posting a .791 OPS and a 125 wRC+. Oakland likely knows this is the highest his value will be, and will want to move him at the deadline.
Rooker has never produced like this before, so the team trading for him will have to believe in the production. One thing that does seem to be real is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. Rooker has posted a 155 wRC+ against southpaws and a 112 against right-handers.
Overall, I like Rooker a decent amount. The team trading for him must believe he can continue to hit because he will be under club control until 2028. Left-handed counterpart Seth Brown is the one I would be more interested in, but both could fit in Seattle.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium
Adam Duvall
Duvall owns a career WRC+ of 129 against left-handed pitching and was used in that role on the 2021 Atlanta Braves World Series team. While he has battled injuries this year, in limited action he has posted a 145 wRC+.
Duvall also is an excellent defender and could add value on the bases. He also carries the ability to handle center field, a desperate need for the Mariners. Outside of Julio Rodríguez Seattle has no other good option that can handle center. Duvall is a nice fit on this roster and would be very cheap.
He has been excellent this season and if Seattle fancies itself a contender he could be worth a shot to replace AJ Pollock. Duvall is a rental so he should be relatively cheap.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium
Enrique Hernández
Kiké Hernandez has been a really fun player on a lot of good teams in both Los Angeles and Boston in the past few seasons. For the most part in Los Angeles his role was to be a utility player, but has been an everyday guy in Boston.
After posting a career high 4.0 fWAR in 2021, Hernández has struggled to be an impact player. His fWAR dropped to just 0.4 last season and has gotten even worse in 2023, posting -0.9 fWAR through 72 games.
The 31 year old has tremendous versatility and could help the Mariners out all over the field on defense, in a very similar way to Dylan Moore. His career wRC+ of 95 doesn’t seem to be trending upward, and for a team that needs offense he doesn’t fit very well.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Low
Tommy Pham
Tommy Pham is having a tremendous year for the New York Mets and is going to be a highly coveted player at this year’s deadline. At 35 years old Pham continues to hit, posting a 127 wRC+ with 8 home runs so far in 2023.
Pham is still a good athlete and can handle all three outfield spots, and has even spent a decent amount of time in center field this year. His bat is the reason many teams will have an interest.
His traditional numbers look good, and his batted ball metrics suggest a very good hitter that doesn’t show signs of regression. The bat is for real and he could really help out a playoff team, plus he also can hit both lefties and righties.
Pham will be cheap and is a good fit but I don’t expect Seattle to have much interest in a rental, especially with the general direction they are headed in.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium
Charlie Blackmon
Charlie Blackmon will turn 37 on July 1, and is in the final year of his deal with the Rockies. After a nice career with a 110 wRC+ in parts of 13 seasons in Colorado, this may be the last season for the aging outfielder.
The last few years haven’t been terrible for the outfielder, but it is clear he is no longer an above average bat. He has four straight seasons with a wRC+ in the 90s, and no longer provides value defensively.
Blackmon is a high contact left handed bat who basically can only DH and play corner outfield once or twice a week. Who knows what Colorado wants to do with him, if they can’t get anything of significance they may keep him for a farewell tour. I don’t see this as a fit for Seattle.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Low/Medium
Andrew McCutchen
A former National League MVP, McCutchen has regained his form offensively in 2023. In 68 games for the Pirates this season McCutchen has posted a 128 wRC+ and a .394 OBP, making him one of the best bats on the market.
He isn’t the athlete he once was, but “Cutch” still adds value on the bases. The 36 year old doesn’t add much value defensively and has only played 8 games in the outfield for Pittsburgh this year.
If Seattle was several games over .500 and looking like a serious potential buyer, McCutchen would make sense. It doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Mariners to add a rental bat like McCutchen to DH unless they improve significantly in the next month. By all accounts, he is a terrific leader and clubhouse presence and would be a really fun addition.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium
Jazz Chisholm
Jazz Chisholm isn’t likely to be traded at this year’s deadline, but it isn’t totally out of the question. The 25 year old has played center field at an above average level this season after being moved from second base.
He has a ton of upside, and Seattle would likely want him to move back to the middle infield. It has been speculated in the past that the Marlins are tired of some of his antics and that his personality would fit in well with Scott Servais and this clubhouse.
A young controllable left handed hitting second baseman with real upside and years of control is worth paying up for, but Chisholm has struggled to stay on the field. he has appeared in just 41 games for Miami this season.
This wouldn’t be a seller’s move for Miami, but more of a lateral move to get better in other areas. Miami needs bullpen help and offense, so Teoscar Hernandez and more could be a fit in a deal. Again, it isn’t likely that these teams match up in a deal, but Chishom fits very well.
Price- High
Team Fit- High
Jorge Mateo
The idea of Jorge Mateo is always better than the actuality of having him on your roster. Mateo started out 2023 on fire, giving much hope that he may finally be able to tap into the talent that made him a top prospect.
He has scuffled since then and owns just a 69 wRC+ for the campaign. He owns a career 77 wRC+, making him 23 percent worse than the league average at the plate. Despite his offensive deficiencies, Mateo is a really fun player who adds value to the team in other ways.
An 80 grade runner, Mateo provides a ton of value defensively and on the bases. For an offensively challenged team like the Mariners, Mateo isn’t a great fit and is probably a worse version of Dylan Moore.
Price- Medium/Low
Team Fit- Medium/Low
Connor Norby
Norby is one of a few minor leaguers to make my list and would be especially interesting if Seattle was to sell this summer. He is a second baseman that grades out as an average defender but potentially carries an incredible hit tool. Norby would be more of a long-term fit, but I would have no problem grabbing him and letting him play and develop for the rest of the season.
After a tremendous 2022, Norby has taken a step back in 2023. He carries a tremendous hit tool but hasn’t hit for power or gotten on base enough this season. His wRC+ of 95 in AAA isn’t great, but I still like the player.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium
Michael Busch
Looking for this year’s version of Ty France? Look no further. Busch is an older prospect that is destroying AAA pitching and is blocked by the loaded Dodgers roster.
While his prospect profile says he plays second base and the outfield, he plays second much like Ty France used to. He should be used at first base, third base, and the corner outfield moving forward. He is very similar to Jonathan Aranda.
Busch is a left handed hitter who has hit at every level, and Seattle could look to acquire him like they did with France in 2020. Los Angeles could use a few of Seattle’s relievers or bats if they sell. Busch is a player I would target regardless of their place in the standings. He will turn 26 in November.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- High
Vaughn Grissom
Grissom is a player I have landed on as a target in the mold of Ty France, Mitch Haniger, J.P. Crawford and more. He is still young but may not fit on the Braves roster any longer. They need to win now and have depleted their farm for the most part, trying to acquire talent to chase another ring.
Grissom is still just 22 years old and has an extremely high ceiling, but he has to play to reach it. A 6 foot 3 inch middle infielder, Grissom has hit for high average at every level of the minor leagues. His defense has been trending in the right direction according to guru Ron Washington, but Orlando Arcia’s explosion on the scene has left playing time scarce for the youngster.
The infielder would immediately slide in as the starter at second base for the Mariners, making him a very similar fit to what Seattle did with J.P Crawford just a few years ago. This could be a sellers move for the Mariners to give the Braves some offense or bullpen help, but could help to fix the second base spot for the foreseeable future.
Price- Medium/High
Team Fit- High
Luis Garcia
A 23 year old middle infielder/utility type for the Nationals, the Mariners got to see Garcia up close last week. A former top-100 prospect, Garcia is a high-contact left-handed hitter without much pop.
He has finally started to tap into his hit tool a little bit this season, slashing .280/.314/.392 for Washington this season. His 89 wRC+ shows his weaknesses, not having much power or on-base skills to speak of.
Despite the fact that he was once a good prospect and is still just 23 years old, Garcia doesn’t interest me much. He has never controlled the zone in the minor leagues all that well, and doesn’t do any damage at the plate. In my opinion, he isn’t a second base fit for Seattle.
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez is a name that a few folks have mentioned as a fit for Seattle, mostly because of his big left handed power. The Mariners lineup is primarily right handed and a player like Tellez could help to balance out the order.
The 28 years old is strictly a first baseman and DH, and you would want him to DH as much as possible. He doesn’t walk much and strikes out right around league average, so you need a good amount of power here.
Tellez owns a career wRC+ of 102 and hasn’t been a very productive player by fWAR over the course of his career. I think Seattle can do better here, and if they traded for Tellez it would have to be as a secondary piece.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium/Low
Spencer Steer
Spencer Steer fits in very well with a lot of the things the Mariners have valued in the past, while also being with an organization that Seattle is very comfortable dealing with. Steer is a corner infielder who can stand at the corner outfield spots, and is very similar to Ty France defensively.
Steer is all bat, much in the same way that France was when Seattle acquired him back in 2020. He hit at every level of the minor leagues but struggled in limited action in 2022. He has bounced back in a major way this season, posting a 125 wRC+ carried by an 11% walk rate and a strikeout rate under 20 percent.
He puts the ball in play a lot, and has decent pop. Steer would be a really nice fit on this roster whether or not Seattle decided to part ways with France at the deadline. He has several years of club control remaining and may be expensive depending on how the Reds see themselves right now.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- High
Pitchers
Alex Cobb
The San Francisco Giants own one of the most confusing rosters in all of baseball, with aging veterans and supplementary pieces across the board. The Giants have played well enough to put themselves in a buyer conversation, although the best thing for them long term may be to sell.
Cobb is a name I really like here, although he has been on the injured list with an oblique injury. Cobb is expected back in late June to continue his stellar campaign.
He has had a long and successful big league career as a back-end starter, most notably with the Tampa Bay Rays and division rival Los Angeles Angels. He has spent some parts of the last few offseasons training at Driveline and altering his repertoire, which seems to be paying off in a big way.
His fastball velocity and movement have jumped up dramatically over the last few seasons, and he also added a slider to his mix this season. These changes have materially altered his outcomes over the last two seasons, and he has produced in a big way in 2023.
It isn’t likely that Seattle would buy this high on a starting pitcher, I would expect some of his teammates to be more realistic targets for Seattle. Cobb is a high end target that has a club option for 2024.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium
Alex Wood
Cobb’s rotation mate is the next target for Seattle, veteran left-hander Alex Wood. Wood has been a valuable and productive arm in the big leagues for many years when he has been able to stay healthy.
His funky delivery and deception have given him a nice big-league career, putting together 18.1 fWAR over 10 seasons. His bugaboo has been staying on the field, although he was able to start 26 games in each of the last two seasons.
He has had an interesting season putting together a few really nice outings, with much time spent on the injured list in between. He has made 11 starts through June 27, posting a 4.50 FIP and 0.2 fWAR.
Wood owns a career 3.54 FIP, and would comfortably slide in as a number four starter for the Mariners. He could be a replacement for Seattle once Bryan Woo reaches his innings limit, and San Francisco could be motivated to move him in a sideways deal if they get a reliever they like. He will be a free agent at season’s end.
With the injuries to Marco Gonzales and Taylor Dollard, Seattle’s starting pitching depth is weak. If they want to compete they will have to add a number five starter or just depth to get them through the season.
Price- Medium/Low
Team Fit- High
Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito is the other name that is certain to get plenty of buzz across the league. Giolito is a former Cy Young contender who has battled health and conditioning issues over the last two seasons.
His top-end form is a number two starter, so Seattle may believe they can get him there. The 6-8 righthander is in the final year of his contract and Chicago will almost certainly move on from him, but his price tag is certain to be high.
Through June 27 Giolito has had a major bounceback season, posting a 4.19 FIP and 1.4 fWAR in 92.1 innings so far in 2023. The strikeouts are still lower than you would like them to be, but there is upside here.
Giolito is a free agent in the offseason and will likely be very expensive for a rental. A team may decide he is a trade and extend candidate, but I don’t expect the Mariners to be very involved.
It is possible they would be interested if they were to deal from their current rotation, but I don’t believe that is going to happen. Giolito has massive upside still, but Seattle may be better off staying away from this one.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium/Low
Lance Lynn
As a disclaimer, I don’t think Lynn is a fit here. He has a long track record of success and has plenty of postseason innings, but the clubhouse fit is questionable here. Sources have communicated his propensity to be a difficult individual, which just doesn’t fit in this Mariner clubhouse.
Anything is possible and Lynn certainly would add value to this team. His ERA is ugly so far in 2023, but he also dominated Seattle to the tune of 16 punchouts back in early June.
Lynn has heavy fastball usage and still has good velocity, and his expected numbers are a lot better than his actual numbers. His 4.80 FIP and 0.8 fWAR are encouraging, and he does still have a year left on his deal following 2023. He could be an interesting grab to replace Woo’s spot in the rotation and could fill in nicely in 2024 until Robbie Ray returns.
Don’t count on Lynn here, but the fit does make some sense.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium/High
James Paxton
Could the Mariners welcome back an old friend? Seattle must believe they are a contender for this move to make sense, but he is almost certainly a player someone is going to take a flyer on.
The “Big Maple” has been an outstanding contributor in his MLB career when healthy, which hasn’t been often. He has dealt with a myriad of injuries over his big league career, making him a tricky guy to trade for.
A tall left-hander, Paxton has bounced back nicely in 2023. As of June 27, Paxton has made 8 starts for Boston and has posted 1.1 fWAR. His velo and stuff have returned nicely, and if he can stay healthy until the deadline he could be an attractive piece.
Paxton could fit with Seattle, but his health track record is spotty. You would rather have someone with a better track record of health, but his impact would be high if he is healthy. He could be a logical replacement for Bryan Woo in the rotation for a low cost, and the Red Sox should almost certainly sell with their standing in the AL East.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium/High
Anthony DeSclafani
DeSclafani was one of my favorite targets for Seattle before the 2022 season and was signed to a three-year deal in San Francisco. The 33 year old has always been a reliable back-end starter but has turned things up this year in the bay area.
He has posted a 4.28 ERA and a 3.72 FIP so far this season but has already posted 1.5 fWAR in 16 starts in 2023. A right-hander with a true five-pitch mix, DeSclafani throws a lot of strikes and easily projects as a number four starter. He is basically the best version of Chris Flexen.
He still has a year remaining in his deal after 2023 which could make him interesting for Seattle potentially. He would be a great number five starter and Bryan Woo replacement. However, the extra year of control at a very reasonable price will likely make him too expensive especially because the Giants are very much in contention in the National League.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium
Drew Smyly
Another former Mariner makes the list, and it is the soggy arm himself. Drew Smyly has always been a productive big league starter when healthy, but his availability has been spotty at best.
The lefthander has made 15 starts for the Cubs this season, posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.2 fWAR. His expected stats are worse than his actual stats so regression is likely, but Smyly has been very good nonetheless.
The 34-year-old basically uses a two-pitch mix that is extremely effective, using both a cutter and slider. He does have an opt-out after 2023 making this a very likely rental situation, which could be perfect for the Mariners.
He also has experience coming out of the bullpen, which could be useful in the playoffs. Overall it is hard to tell what the Cubs will do, but adding former Mariners is always in the cards for Jerry Dipoto. If Seattle thinks they are a contender this move may be worthwhile.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium/Low
Blake Snell
Blake Snell is a player that I have expected to become a Mariner for many years now, and this might be the best chance for it to happen. Sources have told me in the past that the Seattle native would love to return home, and at one point hoped he would be traded to Seattle. Snell is a rental which means his price tag shouldn’t be exorbitant, although he has been fantastic this year.
In 15 starts and 81 innings, the 30 year old lefthander has produced 1.5 fWAR and a 3.22 ERA. He is also striking out almost 12 batters per nine. He still has difficulties throwing strikes at times and doesn’t get deep in games, but the stuff is plenty good enough.
The other issue with Snell has been his health, although he has typically been able to make 20 plus starts a year. The Padres may consider a massive re-tool here, and Snell is likely of no use to them beyond this season. He would be an automatic extension candidate if he ends up in Seattle, keep an eye on this one for the Mariners.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium/High
Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez may be one of the highest impact arms available at this year’s deadline, but a multitude of factors also make him one of the most complex. Rodriguez has a rocky history with the Tigers organization and carries an opt out after the 2023 season.
He is currently on the IL with a finger injury, but when healthy this season he has been dominant. In 11 starts the left hander has produced a 2.13 ERA and a 3.14 FIP, with 1.7 fWAR. When healthy, he has been one of the best arms in the league this season.
Essentially he is going to be a rental if he opts out following the season. There will be a ton of competition for his services, and Seattle isn’t in dire need of a starter. I don’t expect the Mariners to be involved here.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium/Low
Kyle Freeland
Kyle Freeland is an effective left handed starter that could benefit greatly from leaving Colorado. Freeland is under control until 2027 but has an opt-out after next season. Colorado is difficult to pin down, and it always feels unlikely they would move on from any player they have spent money on.
Freeland has a balanced five pitch mix and has always pitched better away from Coors Field. The Rockies are tricky and I don’t love the fit from a contract perspective, so I won’t go much deeper than this.
Freeland is a nice arm, but fits better elsewhere.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium/Low
Paul Blackburn
Another former Mariner checking in. Blackburn was an All-Star last season which was mostly due to the struggles of the Oakland Athletics. While his season last year wasn’t actually All-Star quality, he has actually been quite good in limited action this season.
In six starts so far this season he has produced 0.7 fWAR after putting up 0.8 fWAR in 21 starts last season. Blackburn has six pitches that he uses at least 8 percent, and he is getting swing and miss like never before. His strikeout rates have typically hovered around 6-7 per 9 innings, but this year Blackburn is above 10. If you think that is sustainable it may be worth it to make a deal here.
The 29 year old has two years remaining after this one, and it is clear that Okaland is headed nowhere. If Seattle were to ship off one of their starters this summer or in the offseason Blackburn may be a candidate. There isn’t a ton of need for him long term if they keep the current group intact, but he would have a role in the remainder of 2023.
Price- Medium
Team Fit- Medium
Brad Keller
The main reason that Keller is on this list is because of the horrific results of the 2023 Royals. Keller is a number five starter with a little bit of upside but has really struggled to produce. He is also coming off an injury and should be beginning a rehab stint in late June.
He is going to be a cheap number five starter who can eat innings, and Seattle could potentially help him fix the repertoire. The 27 year old has troubling advanced metrics but has been a good back end starter before.
This move makes a good deal of sense for Seattle to cover the rest of this season, especially if they feel they can get more value out of him. He isn’t healthy which is a big concern, but he should be very cheap as a rental.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium/High
Rich Hill
Rich Hill is a 43 year old starter that just continues to produce at a solid level, and will be a cheap innings eater for whatever team acquires his services this summer. The Pirates are technically still in a spot where they could make the playoffs, a similar spot to the Mariners.
They have good starting pitching so far this year, and Hill isn’t going be a part of the long term plans. While the fastball isn’t impressive, Hill relies on a steady diet of breaking balls that can give teams fits. He has started 16 games this season for the Pirates and posted a 4.45 ERA as of June 30.
He would be a back end rotation replacement for Bryan Woo if Marco Gonzales’s health continues to be a concern. The Pittsburgh lefty is a rental, and wouldn’t be expensive.
Price- Low
Team Fit- Medium/High
Scott Barlow
Scott Barlow would be an electric addition to the Seattle bullpen immediately. Kansas City won’t compete next year, and could immediately slot in at the back end of Seattle’s bullpen.
In 2022 he posted a 2.18 ERA with 24 saves for the Royals, and his advanced stats are tremendous. The right hander ranked in the 96th percentile of hard hit rate and the 83rd percentile of xwOBA according to Baseball Savant.
He is having another great year in Kansas City in terms of his advanced metrics, but he is also one of the only trade chips the Royals have to offer.
He also throws his slider about 44% of the time, a profile trait that the Mariners could fall in love with. Kansas City drove a hard bargain for Whit Merrifield two years ago and would likely do the same for Barlow, but the fit is there. Barlow enters free agency in 2025.
Seattle typically feels comfortable with their bullpen development, so I don’t see a way this happens.
Price- Medium/High
Team Fit- Medium/Low
Sea Level Top 10
Alex Verdugo
Gleyber Torres
Wily Adames
Jonathan India
Jorge Polanco
Brandon Lowe
Ryan McMahon
Blake Snell
Vaughn Grissom
Michael Conforto/Luis Urias