Mariners series preview: Cleveland Guardians

Pitching matchups, X factors, and picks to click for your Seattle Mariners in a revenge matchup against the Guardians.

Tuesday night was about as much fun as a team could have, throttling a division rival with two homers apiece from the new faces in the Seattle lineup. The rest of the season so far has been extremely frustrating, with uncharacteristic mistakes landing the Mariners in last place.

Seven games into the year the concern level should remain low, but some important characteristics of their play need to change. The Mariners have struggled mightily with controlling the zone, both offensively and in the pitching department.

This was one of their superpowers last year, and for a team who doesn’t hit a ton of home runs, run prevention and creation are key.

Nathan Bishop @nathan_h_b

That said the 2022 team's top three in BB% (Min. 100 PA) are all either gone (Winker/Santana) or hurt (Moore). It's a different roster, so it'll be interesting to see where that stabilizes at this season.

Pitching Matchups

As they did in the first series of the year, the pitching matchups should favor the Mariners as they travel to Progressive Field.

Friday: Logan Gilbert (RHP) vs. Aaron Civale (RHP) 

Saturday: Marco Gonzales LHP) vs. Cal Quantrill RHP)

Sunday: George Kirby (RHP) vs. Zach Plesac (RHP)

Seattle has the edge on Friday and Sunday with young stars Logan Gilbert and George Kirby on the mound.

The key in this series will be Seattle rebounding in some crucial fashions, both defensively and improving their walk rates.

The Mariners rank FIFTH in major league baseball in walks allowed, and for a Cleveland ballclub that relies on speed and contact with little power, not allowing free bases will be key.

Making Cleveland put the ball in play will be key, and with one of the best contact teams in baseball, it is almost a given. 

Seattle played “uncharacteristically sloppy” according to President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto through the first few games of the season. For a team that relies on pitching and run prevention, this has not been their strength thus far in 2023. 

With the pitching matchups in their favor, I expect Seattle to get on track in this regard, especially coming off a much needed day of rest on Thursday.

X Factors

The Mariners have won 90 games in each of the last two seasons, in large part due to a dominant bullpen. Cleveland also has one of the best relief units in baseball, so the Seattle bullpen needs to show up in a big way.

Marco Gonzales hasn’t shown a ton of ability to give this team length recently, so the bullpen eating innings and throwing strikes will be important.

We haven’t yet seen the best form of any of the Mariners’ best relievers. Andres Munoz has struggled a little bit early on and has also experienced some tough batted-ball luck so far.

Matt Brash has dominant movement and velocity but we need to see more strikes, and Paul Sewald could use more life and control of his fastball as we move through the early part of the season.

In short, the Mariners need to control the zone much better if they want to get on track. 

BR’s picks to click

We have seen some encouraging signs from Jarred Kelenic so far, but nothing that would match the excitement that followed him North of Peoria. 

Kelenic has had more mature at-bats and has laid off some tough two-strike offerings in the early going. 

I expect him to provide a little spark and get on the board with his first home run of the campaign this weekend. He hit his first big league home run off Aaron Civale, so why not another?

If Kelenic struggles don’t be surprised to see Cooper Hummel get a chance to play the outfield this series. Hummel has been impressive in a small sample, staying away from strikeouts and hitting balls hard, but with little results. 

He will start game 1 at DH, as the Mariners look to steal a few victories from a really tough Cleveland squad.