Mailbag Monday: Geno contract, trading Montes, is Marte a real possibility?

Answering Mariners questions on my last Mailbag Monday until my return to podcasting next week. Happy Holidays!

What is a realistic contract that you think Geno and the M’s would agree upon?

I talked about Geno a few days ago, but I will repeat some of it here. Check out my article for a detailed analysis.

The Mariners and Geno are still a good fit. Geno makes a ton of sense on this roster, and I do think there would be mutual interest here. Seattle would almost certainly want the 34-year-old back on a short-term deal. Seattle would obviously prefer a one year deal, and probably would offer an option for a second year. I would be really surprised to see the Mariners do anything more than that with Suarez. His market may end up being more robust, but we know he has enjoyed his time in Seattle. For more on this, check out my detailed thoughts on Geno’s fit.

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Are you surprised at all by how little the Red Sox had to give up for Contreras? I know Donovan is completely different because he is on a cheap contract, but maybe the asking price is going to be more reasonable? They have also acquired a lot of pitching prospects. Does this point more to Laz being the centerpiece?

Good question. For me, this is hard to evaluate because Chaim Bloom is clearly trying to access players in the Boston system that he values very highly. Because of his familiarity with the players, I think he may value them differently. I also don’t think particularly highly of him as an executive so far.

Donovan’s value was always going to be more reasonable than what was being reported, especially if the Mariners are the acquiring team. The Mariners typically set a price range and tend not to stray far from it. They want to value their prospects accurately and not stray from those values, and it is a process that has benefitted them in the past. They do a great job giving up prospects that they want to, and not waver far from it. Donovan is a good player, not a great one. He feels like exactly the type of player that Seattle will have a range of prospects that they don’t want to touch. I think the reporting so far suggests they want to part with something they have a surplus of, and everything points to pitching. I could see the Mariners preferring to part with prospects like Cijntje, Christian Little, and Troy Taylor. I also think Luke Raley could be a suitable replacement for Lars Nootbar. My feeling is the Cardinals want Laz to be included, and Seattle does not. Montes offers a unique charisma, flair, and upside that I haven’t seen in a Seattle prospect in some time. I feel that Seattle will be reluctant to part with him because he has a chance to debut this year or next, and could be the type of power bat that is rare for Seattle ever to lure to a hitter of his style. He carries immense risk for both Seattle and the acquiring team because of the massive swing and miss concerns and lack of defensive value.

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I wonder if part of the hold up is that we are considering including Castillo in a trade to the DBacks, but he has a no-trade clause until 1/1. If the DBacks are going for Bregman, they won’t just want prospects. Maybe Castillo, Young, Cijntje, and Raley, plus some money to balance the contracts this year?

I think it is certainly within the realm of possibility that something like this could be on the table. I think Arizona would want Seattle to include another prospect here for the offset in salary. The other reason this feels possible is that nothing has happened yet because of Luis Castillo’s no trade clause. On January 1, Castillo’s no-trade will expire, making them able to deal him anywhere.

My gut feeling is that Seattle will not prefer to add a long-term deal like Marte’s without trading off Castillo’s deal. In their eyes, I think this would balance out future risk while adding a need. The issue is that the Mariners seem to want to keep as much of their 2025 team intact without exposing themselves and their strengths. The pitching staff dealt with plenty of health turmoil, and their deep October run puts them at risk for next year. With the team being built on the pitching staff and Castillo’s health probability and lack of starters remaining on the market, it makes me think they truly want to hold onto their entire rotation. I continue to have a very hard time seeing the Mariners pulling the trigger on a Marte deal because of the extreme cost, but it will be intersting to see their willingness if/when Donovan goes elsewhere.

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Including the cost, which of these pairs would you prefer?
Marte & Castro
Donovan & Yakomoto
Cronenworth & Goldschmidt

I would rank this trio as follows

1. Donovan and Okamoto

2. Marte and Castro

3. Cronenworth and Goldschmidt

This is a tough one. I always have a hard time separating what I would rather have from what I think they will do. Cronenworth and Goldschmidt are easily last for me here. You aren’t gaining any athleticism by doing this, and Goldschmidt doesn’t really fit on the roster.

Marte and Castro should probably be number one on this list if it weren’t for the cost of Marte being such an unknown. Marte is a legit star in major league baseball, but I do worry that his versatility is an issue for what Seattle is trying to accomplish. Unless Seattle is adding Luis Castillo to that deal, I just still have a really hard time seeing them accepting his contract on top of what they have with Castillo’s deal. I could be wrong, and Marte’s deal certainly isn’t an albatross, but Seattle paying the prospect cost and accepting his contract would still surprise me. I do love the Willi Castro piece of this. Castro is versatile and can help out at third base and in right field. I do think Castro’s fit is murky now with the addition of Refsnyder. Castro is my backup option currently to Brendan Donovan, who is at the top of this list. Donovan still fits very well in Seattle, and Okamoto would be a fun addition to protect the Mariners at both corner infield spots and at DH. Donovan fills a future need in the OF and helps them tremendously in 2026 to help the club get prospects playing time. Okamoto is a fun fit as well, and has a chance to be a really productive hitter. All of this is to say I think they add one more hitter and one more reliever this winter, and every player in this price range can reasonably be acquired within payroll restrictions.

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Thoughts on Goldschmidt’s fit? He hit .336 against lefties last year with a 169 WRC+. He could make sense as a compliment to the potential addition of Donovan. He could DH and backup Naylor. Not a bad thought. I would prefer Okamoto, but Goldy is projected to earn 1 year $8-12m.

Sorry to get to this late, Byron. Goldschmidt is an interesting thought, but with the addition of Rob Refsnyde, I would say this is definitely off the table. Seattle was always going to be unlikely to add someone who was only able to play first base; their goal was likely going to be to add someone a little more versatile. Goldschmidt struggled mightily in the second half, and his numbers against righties also weren’t great. If Goldschmidt is going to get 8-12 million, that feels like a massive overpay, especially for the Mariners, who do not need him.

A 38-year-old weak-side platoon who can only play first base is really unlikely for Seattle, and ultimately would have been unlikely even before the acquisition of Refsnyder. (Sorry again for the delay getting to this one. Merry Christmas!)

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With the recent signings of King and Song, I think it is more likely that the Padres need to unload Cronenworth. M’s get Cronenworth
Padres get: Logan Evans, Luke Raley, and Comp round B pick
Thoughts?

Good question, and good job with the valuation here. I think this is about what it would take, and the players you added make a lot of sense for the Padres. Cronenworth’s deal carries somewhat significant risk for the acquiring team.

I was stunned when the Padres extended him. It made zero sense at the time and makes even less sense now. Cronenworth could be your everyday second baseman, backup Josh Naylor at first, and likely could handle some third base as well. His money is reasonable year to year; the real issue is the back end of his deal approaching his 40s. I think this money is better spent by pursuing a Willi Castro, Geno Suarez, or Kazuma Okamoto on a shorter term deal. The team could move off of Robles or Raley to create a little bit of salary relief to pay one of these players as well. I love the trade idea, though, and I do think you are correct on the value. The player is also a great fit; it is just hard to see the Mariners accept his money over the long term.