Is Max Kepler a fit for the Mariners?

Max Kepler is almost certainly available this offseason in a left handed heavy Minnesota Twins outfield, but does he make sense for the Mariners?

The offseason is still relatively quiet for many teams, including your Seattle Mariners. They have holes on this roster that I expect them to fill or address in some manner, and the outfield is one of the biggest.

While action has been scarce, there are several dominos that will almost certainly fall this offseason. Bryan Reynolds is among the most significant remaining trade chips, but several smaller pieces such as Chris Flexen will almost certainly change hands.

Max Kepler is one of these obvious trade pieces, but it is fair to wonder if he is the impact the Mariners have been looking for.

To be totally transparent, Kepler was not high on my wishlist going into the offseason. As the Mariners’ wishlist slimmed down to focusing on right-handed bats, I all but ruled out a player like Kepler having a fit on this roster.

However, since deep diving into his numbers, I have changed my thoughts on Kepler and his potential fit in Seattle.

His overall numbers are not pretty. Kepler slashed .226/.318/.348 last season with just 9 home runs, a down year compared to much of his MLB career. His 95 WRC+ was just two points lower than in 2021, which was much lower than his above average 2019-2020 seasons.

The 29-year-old outfielder offered little to no power in 2022, which was my biggest concern when evaluating him. After slugging .519 in 2019, Kepler dipped all the way down to .348 this past season.

Although the lack of slugging is somewhat concerning, there is some reason for optimism.

Kepler posted his lowest fly ball percentage of his entire career, with his ground ball rate also skyrocketing. He continued to hit the ball as hard as he used to, just not nearly with the same loft.

The German outfielder’s launch angle was just 11.2 in 2022, the lowest of his career in a full season. His exit velocities remained steady, but the lack of loft lead to fewer extra base hits. This could easily go back up next season and would be a relatively easy fix to add an instant increase in slugging.

Random Homers @randomhomers

Max Kepler - 08/16/2021

Kepler’s Baseball Savant page adds even more intrigue to this.

While Kepler’s exit velocities remained steady, he was actually very unlucky last season. His xwOBA and xBA were both very high, which indicates the expected value of his batted balls. We would expect this to improve, especially if he could increase his launch angle back to his career averages.

His ability to control the strike zone would certainly catch the eye of the Seattle front office. He ranked in the 88th percentile in K% and the 84th in BB%, both well above average figures. Kepler could easily take a jump next season, and his .666 OPS is a little misleading.

Twins Ribbies @TwinsRibbies

Max Kepler is one of eight players who is under 30 years old with at least 100 home runs, 400 RBI, and positive defensive runs saved. Cody Bellinger Alex Bregman Carlos Correa Francisco Lindor Max Kepler Matt Olson Dansby Swanson Trea Turner #MNTwins

He is also a tremendous defender in right field, making him an awesome fit to improve Seattle’s outfield defense. Another huge upside of adding his elite corner outfield defense is that Kepler can handle centerfield. This remains a huge hole on the roster, and the Mariners could use a good centerfield option in relief of Julio Rodríguez.

Kepler has one more season remaining on his rookie deal, giving Minnesota more reason to move him. Seattle and Minnesota would match up really well in a deal like this, as Chris Flexen could be a real fit here.

If Seattle were to miss out on Bryan Reynolds, they could pivot to a player like Kepler with a platoon partner for Kelenic. The Mariners would be smart to add two players to this group, and Kepler would be a nice addition.

Despite poor traditional numbers I really like Kepler’s profile. He is almost a guaranteed 2 WAR player with an upside of 3-4. This is a really valuable player who wouldn’t be extremely expensive.

Even with all of this, I still find it hard to believe Seattle will get involved here. He is left-handed, which could rule him out for a team who prefers to add a right-handed bat. As options begin to dwindle, a move could become more plausible.