Brandon Lowe scouting report and fit with the Mariners
Brandon Lowe scouting report and fit with the Mariners
Brandon Lowe has always seemed destined to be a Seattle Mariner, and this offseason has the potential to fulfill that prophecy.
Brandon Lowe is a player who could be of interest to the Mariners to fill their second base role, especially after the reports of Seattle’s interest in a left-handed second baseman. This acquisition would not come for cheap, and it would cost the Mariners significant prospect capital to get a deal done.
Lowe is not set to become a free agent until 2027, making him a cheap and productive option for the Rays’ foreseeable future. They have a loaded middle infield talent-wise, with players like Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, and Vidal Brujan on their roster. None of these players have a proven bat like Lowe, but Tampa could choose to try a big return for him now.
Lowe is just 28 years old and was injured most of last season. He had a back injury that ended his season and sapped him of some productivity, limiting him to just 65 games.
His home run numbers dropped from 39 in 2021 to just 8 in 2022. His WRC+ number dropped down to just 104 in 2022 from 137 in 2021. Tampa Bay would be selling low on him, and would likely still keep the asking price very high. It is tough to see a world where they move on from him, but he would certainly fit Seattle well.
Lowe has posted a WRC+ above 110 in every season except 2022, and blasted 39 home runs just last year. He is one of the best bats in the league at the position, and Fangraph’s Steamer projects him to have a nice rebound next season. Steamer has him at a 127 WRC+ and 27 home runs.
His Hard Hit percentage and Barrel percentage were down significantly in 2022, but it is safe to say they would go back up in 2023 provided he stays healthy.
Lowe also controls the zone fairly well, walking above 10% last season which is above league average. He only struck out 22.9% of the time in 2022, another intriguing figure. He seems like exactly the type of player Jerry Dipoto would love to add to this team, considering his offensive profile and position.
Lowe is also a dominant hitter against right-handed pitching, making him an ideal platoon partner with Dylan Moore. It was reported that Seattle was looking for the left-handed part of a platoon with Moore, who exceeds against lefties.
Defensively Lowe is fine, but would likely be below average with the shift ban coming next season. One reason he is even more valuable is his versatility. Lowe has the ability to play corner outfield spots as well as first base, making him an intriguing upgrade over what they thought they were getting in Adam Frazier.
Overall Lowe is exactly the type of player Seattle should be trying to add to this roster. His bat would add a tremendous amount to this lineup, but it remains difficult to see from Tampa’s perspective.
Seattle would likely have to pay a ton in exchange for Lowe, with players like Chris Flexen, Matt Brash, and Jarred Kelenic being part of the deal. Coming off a down year it is hard to see Tampa Bay doing any deal without a huge return, which I believe ultimately shuts this deal down.
Keep an eye on Lowe but expect Seattle to ultimately look elsewhere to find their second baseman.