Analysis: Mariners acquire Kolten Wong from Brewers
The Mariners have fired up the hot stove in advance of the Winter Meetings, filling their second base void with the addition of Kolten Wong. Let's take a look at the deal.
The Seattle Mariners have their second baseman, and it certainly wasn’t a big name shortstop. On Friday afternoon the Mariners pulled the trigger on a deal with the Milwaukee Brewers that will send infielder Kolten Wong to Seattle for Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro. Many people will be upset that Wong isn’t a big-name shortstop but they shouldn’t be, because he is an excellent player.
First off let’s focus on what the Mariners are getting. I have written about the Mariners acquiring Wong in great detail which you can find here. Wong is a player that Jerry Dipoto has had an interest in before, most notably before 2021. Ownership pulled the rug out from Dipoto on signing him, instead opting to sign with the Brewers who gave him an extra season.
Seattle needs a second baseman now and was able to acquire Wong in the last year of his deal. He will be due 10 million dollars in 2023 and another 5 million to be spread out over the next few seasons. The Mariners will also receive 1.75 million in cash in the deal.
The Hawaii native is coming off a 2.5 fWAR season where he put up a 116 WRC+, the same as free agent shortstop Dansby Swanson. After several mediocre offensive seasons at the beginning of his career, Wong has turned things up in the last two years.
A lot of this is due to the fact that he has improved his hard-hit rate to above 34 percent in each of the last two seasons. In addition, he has started to hit the ball in the air more often, with a 14 degree launch angle last season.
The 32 year old rarely strikes out, posting a K% under 18 percent the last two seasons. He also posted a BB% in the 65th percentile last season, meaning he strikes out less and walks more than the average hitter.
Seattle has a lot of swing and miss in the lineup, and adding Wong means a consistent contact hitter. He could very well be the leadoff hitter in front of Julio Rodríguez next season unless the club adds someone like Brandon Nimmo.
Defense has always been Wong’s calling card, but he struggled on that side of the ball last season. Wong ranked in just the third percentile in outs above average last season, but something tells me Perry Hill can easily get him back on track. He has been well above average every year of his career and could be dynamic once again with help from Hill.
I expect Wong and J.P. Crawford to be a dynamic middle infield defensively, one of the best in all of major league baseball. Fangraphs projects him to put up 2.5 fWAR while regressing slightly offensively to a 107 WRC+. Even if Wong regressed slightly offensively his defense should uptick, making him a very valuable player for Seattle.
He does not hit lefties well but Seattle has Dylan Moore to fill in on those days, making this a nice platoon.
To acquire Wong Jerry Dipoto had to swallow his pride and trade away two acquisitions from the last two seasons. Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro will head to Milwaukee in return.
Winker will likely be a very good hitter next season in Milwaukee, but it was clear that the fit in the clubhouse was no longer there. Early season struggles with both performance and health led Winker to fall out of favor with his teammates, and it was clear a deal needed to be made.
Most of the discontent in the clubhouse had to do with Winker’s defensive work or lack of it. His performance at the plate was a struggle, but his defense was much worse.
This deal will give Winker a fresh start, but Seattle’s hand was forced on dealing him. They also traded Abraham Toro, clearing up space on the roster at a position of depth. Toro was acquired in the Kendall Graveman deal with Houston, a deal that was much maligned at the time.
This deal is difficult because it is likely that Winker will hit again in his career, but the relationship with the Mariners and the clubhouse was fractured. Toro needs a fresh start but has struggled mightily over his MLB career so far.
Overall I like this deal for Seattle in some ways. Wong is a very good player who I think fits perfectly in the Mariners clubhouse. He has been an above average hitter and his defense should improve next season with Seattle.
It is tough to cut bait on a guy like Winker but it seems it had to be done. He will likely hit in a big way moving forward but the move had to be made. Seattle got a nice player that fills in a position of need. The Mariners will need to add more offense to accompany this move, but anytime you acquire a good player like Kolten Wong it is a win for the Mariners.