For most of the offseason, we have been able to track and predict Seattle’s moves based on clear needs and organizational signaling. On Monday, things changed, with the Mariners’ first surprise move of the offseason, a one-year deal for veteran right-handed hitter Rob Refsnyder. Refsnyder is 34 years old and has spent the last four seasons with the Red Sox. Refsnyder came up as a highly touted infield prospect in the Yankees system, took a journeyman path, and ended up settling in as a role player for Boston.

Let’s take a look at Refsnyder’s roster fit, payroll fit, and what it could lead to for the rest of the offseason.

Roster Fit

Refsnyder is 34 years old and will play part of 2026 as a 35-year-old. Although he came up as an infielder, the former top prospect has played exclusively in the outfield over the past two seasons.

Interestingly, the Mariners listed Refsnyder as a OF/1B in their press release. He has spent time at 1B in the past, but not since the 2020 season. Seattle clearly expects him to be their backup option at first base, protecting Naylor against tough lefties or giving him a day off. While Naylor performed exceedingly well against southpaws in his stint in Seattle, his overall career performance shows much more modest results.

The Korean-born outfielder should spend time at both corner outfield spots, first base, and designated hitter. He has found success against right-handed pitchers from time to time in his career, but for the most part, his damage has come against left-handed pitchers. Last season, he posted a 128 wRC+ overall, including a 157 against lefties. His ability to mash opposite-handed pitching is crucial in my opinion.

The Mariners posted the 6th highest wRC+ against lefties in 2025, but I expected this figure to regress. Cal Raleigh, Dom Canzone, and Naylor all performed well above their career numbers, and losing Mitch Garver and Geno Suarez will also lessen the present impact against southpaws. Add to that Seattle’s likely reliance on young, unproven left-handed hitters, and you have a lineup in need of a lefty killer. Adding a platoon bat like Refsnyder was critical for depth and impact purposes.

In 2024, Refsnyder posted a 161 wRC+ against lefties and a 105 against righties, which translates into more everyday-type numbers. However, the Arizona product has never been able to stay healthy enough to be an everyday player. Last season, he played in just 70 games with 209 PA. He looks like a player who doesn’t necessarily need to be pinch hit for against righties, but will almost certainly start every game when the Mariners line up against a left-handed starter.

This was a much-needed move for Seattle’s roster, but it must be acknowledged that the Mariners have struggled identifying platoon types over the past few seasons. Donovan Solano struggled mightily, and by the time he found his footing, his need on the roster was little to none. AJ Pollock is another platoon type that was trending in the wrong direction and completely fell apart in Seattle.

Refsnyder’s value goes well beyond his ability to mash lefties. He is well known as a clubhouse presence, and one source I talked to referred to him as “the best clubhouse guy around.”

Payroll Fit

Read more

The Mariners jumped the market early this offseason by re-signing Josh Naylor to a team-friendly deal. They also pulled the trigger on another big need, acquiring a high-leverage arm in Jose Ferrer to assist a bullpen that ran deep into October.

Seattle has yet to address their other large need, an infielder that can provide some flexibility to the roster and impact to the lineup. The Mariners have been linked to Brendan Donovan and Ketel Marte, and the former appears to be their preference. The infield market is loaded with options this offseason, and some of those options began to dwindle Friday with a three-team trade sending Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh.

The market for Donovan and Marte appears to be what is holding up the infield market overall. Seattle is rumored to be “the favorite” in a Donovan deal, but the longer it takes for a move to be made, the more skeptical I am that one gets done. Donovan is a great fit positionally because of his ability to play in the outfield and at second and third, two positions of need. If Seattle doesn’t make a deal with St. Louis or Arizona, no other player out there fits as perfectly.

Instead of the second base versatility they clearly prefer, the Mariners may need to pivot to a corner infielder who could handle first base. This is where old friend Eugenio Suárez could come into play.

Now, listen, I understand the skepticism here. Geno wasn’t exactly stellar down the stretch after being traded to Seattle, and at 34 years old, he doesn’t have a skillset that projects to age well. Suárez could also have plenty of suitors, including the Pirates, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Reds, Tigers, and Phillies could all make sense for the slugging third baseman.

There are plenty of issues with these clubs regarding their interest in Geno. Pittsburgh may offer the most money here (crazy, right?), but would the veteran third baseman want to play for a non-winner? Boston could be a fit if Alex Bregman walks, but probably only on a short-term deal. The Reds have KeBryan Hayes and other infield solutions, and the Cubs, Tigers, Phillies, and Diamondbacks don’t necessarily need an infielder. All or most of those options could do something creative and use the 34-year-old at DH or first base.

Seattle reportedly made contact with both Geno and Jorge Polanco to express interest in a reunion. However, it was reported that Polanco was much more likely, and any interest in Geno would likely only work on a 1-2 year deal. The Mariners haven’t been able to address their infield need to this point, finding itself in a staring contest with St. Louis over prospect prices.

Read more

The Mariners were just eight outs away from their first World Series appearance in franchise history just a few weeks ago. Back in 2022 I came on this website and declared that the Mariners were here to stay, and that their 2022 run was just the beginning of what should be a large contention window for this franchise. It took three whole years to get another crack at October, and this time they were even closer to a destination that continues to elude this franchise. That needs to motivate them now more than ever. It can’t be three more years before they taste champagne and cigar smoke.

The time is now to act, and the pressure shifts to the front office group to get the job done this offseason. Ownership declared their support (we will see on that one), putting the pressure on Jerry Dipoto, Justin Hollander and this front office group to tackle a the offseason roster building task that has been a massive obstacle. These Seattle Mariners have a core of players that is championship caliber. They showed it this year, coming to the doorstep of a frontier this franchise has never seen. Seattle still has holes. Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez have all hit the market. Question marks loom large in this position player group and this roster in general, and that is what we try to tackle in the 2025/2026 Sea Level Offseason Guide.

Subscribe now

Needs

A lot of people have intimated that the Mariners will be an improved team in 2025, a team that will naturally improve. I don’t know if I agree with that statement unless they add players to get legitimately better.

The Mariners are almost in the exact same spot roster wise that they were last winter, with holes at first base, third base, designated hitter, and question marks in right field and at second base. Their rotation ended the year healthy, but performance and health concerns were littered throughout the year. The bullpen was solid, but was heavily relied upon which can create issues the following season with performance and availability.

Seattle doesn’t need to fill all of those spots, but needs to fill several of the following

-First Base: This is the only non negotiable of any of the needs. Seattle needs a first base option. They don’t have one in house and there isn’t one close to the big leagues.

-DH: Seattle lucked their way into their best DH season since Nelson Cruz by signing Jorge Polanco to play third base. They need to add a DH or an outfielder to put Canzone there.

-Third Base- Seattle could opt to roll with Ben Williamson+ a utility type until top prospect Colt Emerson is ready to go, or they could go out and fill the need with an Alec Bohm type. Either way, if they are going to leave this spot up to Williamson they better add bats elsewhere.

-Relievers: One of them would preferably be left handed to help ease the workload of Gabe Speier, but the Mariners really need to add some proven depth to this group to take the workload off of the leverage group.

-Leadoff type: The Mariners probably shouldn’t go into next season slotted with Randy Arozarena or Julio Rodríguez as their leadoff hitter. They could really use a leadoff type this offseason, and that might have to come outside of pursuits to retain Naylor and Polanco.

-Starting Pitcher: This may be a need, or it may not. While Castillo is the most likely, the Mariners are at an interesting crossroads where they could realistically deal any of their starters aside from Bryan Woo. If they do, they need to backfill with depth or impact while waiting for Kade Anderson and Jurrangelo Cijinte.

Bats

Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor became a beloved player in Seattle in just two short months, and the fanbase is essentially throwing themselves at the 28-year-old free agent first baseman. It is for good reason. Naylor is a perfect fit in so many ways.

He makes a ton of contact, plays a position that Seattle has no other options at, and brings a certain intensity and baseball IQ that this group needed. Naylor truly changed the team with his presence and ability to drive in runs.

The Mariners have stated it is a “priority” to bring Naylor back, but to what extent they would be willing to go is unknown. It seemed like Naylor enjoyed his time in Seattle, but It is also very possible that the first baseman is inclined to look at opportunities on the East Coast, closer to the home of him and his high school sweetheart with whom he recently celebrated the birth of their first child. Somewhere between 4-80 and 5-115 million probably gets this done, but as of right now I don’t know if I see a return in the cards with Boston, New York, and others looming. Seattle would be wise to cast a wide net and not pigeonhole itself into Naylor being their only option. With all of that being said, Josh Naylor is the best fit of any player on the market that is available.

Team Fit: High

Cost: High

Jorge Polanco

While Naylor is certainly the best fit, you could argue a reunion with Polanco is a close second. The 32-year-old second base/DH experienced renewed health in 2025 and posted a 132 wRC+ while cutting his strikeout rate in half! He carried the offense at times throughout the season, including a magical trip through the ALDS.

Polanco seems to be the type of player who may want to return to a place where he is comfortable, and I do think in this situation Seattle will have a leg up. He could slot in as the primary DH and fill in at second base periodically, and even potentially learn some first base to help preserve his body and fill a need for Seattle if they don’t re-sign Josh Naylor.

Multiple people have speculated that Polanco’s deal to look something like the one Mitch Garver signed with Seattle a few years ago. That, or the Mitch Haniger deal with San Francisco, would be good comps for Polo (12-15 AAV). I think there’s a solid chance he’s back in Seattle as the primary DH next year.

Team Fit: High

Cost: Medium

Eugenio Suárez

The trade to bring Good Vibes Only home to Seattle was a fun story and moment in Mariners fandom. Geno’s return to Seattle brought an energy that outpaced his production on the field, and while he will always be beloved, he will probably be looking for a new home in 2026. Suárez struggled mightily in the second half, specifically in T-Mobile Park. If it isn’t a one-year deal, I can’t see Seattle bringing him back.

Geno will probably want multiple years, as this may be the last time he can capitalize on a multi-year deal before he retires. I certainly wouldn’t mind a one or a two year deal in Seattle to play either corner spot, but I can’t see it.

Team Fit: Medium

Cost: High/Medium

Mitch Garver

Look, I get it, the contract didn’t work out the way Seattle wanted it to. But if Garver is comfortable in the Pacific Northwest and is okay being a backup catcher at this point in his career, a return to the Mariners as a backup makes a lot of sense. At this point I’d think Harry Ford will be the backup, but if he is dealt Garver makes a ton of sense.

Team Fit: Medium

Cost: Low

Bats

Kazuma Okamoto

Okamoto is probably my favorite backup plan to Josh Naylor out there. While most fans will focus on Naylor, and some more optimistic fans will convince themselves they are interested in Murakami, Okamoto might be the most likely option out of the group. While he doesn’t come without warts, Okamoto is a solid player who could fit nicely on Seattle’s roster.

Okamoto has spent time at first and third base in his pro career, but the 30 year old will likely find himself at first base in the MLB. He missed time in 2025 due to an elbow injury but still posted solid numbers, slashing .327/.416/.598. This is somewhat comparable to his overall numbers in the NPB, where he has hit 248 home runs and slashed .277/.361/.521.

Many have questions about swing and miss with the elevated fastball velocity at the major league level, but Okamoto has never struggled with making contact against fastballs or contact in general, striking out just 11 percent of the time last year. He also did this a few years ago against a 99 MPH heater from Roki Sasaki.

I really like the idea of Okamoto as a solid backup option to Josh Naylor. His contract projection is similar to Naylor’s, but Okamoto can play third base at a decent level as well. The Mariners should still favor Naylor but Okamoto is an intriguing backup option.

Team Fit: High

Cost: High

Subscribe now

Read more

Intro

Bats

Ryan O’Hearn

Ryan O’Hearn is essentially a near-perfect fit for what Seattle needs at this deadline. The Mariners preferably need a left-handed first baseman who can immediately slot into the middle of their order. O’Hearn absolutely bangs, posting a .302/.383/.486 slash with a 149 wRC+. His only flaw is that he doesn’t hit left-handed pitching, but you can pretty easily plug him in at first base with Donovan Solano and feel great about that platoon. His 164 wRC+ against righties will absolutely play in the middle of this order. O’Hearn plays the outfield and first base, wouldn’t be expensive, and could immediately plug in.

The Orioles are no doubt sellers at the upcoming deadline, and O’Hearn on an expiring deal is as much of a lock as exists at this deadline. He shouldn’t cost a ton, and can patch up a massive position of need for the rest of 2025.

Trade Fit: HIGH

Trade Cost: Low/Medium

Cedric Mullins

O’Hearn’s teammate could also be a good fit on this roster, outfielder Cedric Mullins. Mullins is slashing .229/.312/.452 with a 118 wRC+. While his strikeout rate is a career high 25%, the SLG has returned and helped him rejuvenate himself this season. Mullins has hit lefties and righties well this season, although in relatively limited exposure to left-handed pitching. His splits have actually been reverse so far in 2025.

The only issue with acquiring Mullins is that you would have to play him in right field primarily, meaning that Luke Raley would be the first baseman. This is something Seattle has been reluctant to do on a more full time basis. I’m not sure this is a great fit, although I’ve been a fan of his for a long time. He will be a rental, and almost certainly will be dealt at the deadline.

Trade Fit: Medium

Trade Cost: Low/Medium

Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe

This is a tough one for me. On one hand, the Rays and the Mariners are a match made in heaven when a deal needs to get done. On the other hand, the Rays are in a much better position to grab a playoff spot as things currently stand. There have also been rumblings that Diaz and Arozarena do not get along.

With Cole Young in the fold, second base has become less of a need, although Lowe could play first or be a candidate to move to third. Lowe is having a great season and I would be interested in adding him to this roster, but his track record of health scares me and combining that with a position change is a tricky proposition.

Yandy Diaz has always been a tremendous fit in Seattle, but there are too many non-baseball questions here that ruin it for me. The Rays ask for the 33-year-old has always been astronomical, and the questions of his clubhouse fit remain an issue. While his profile would fit perfectly in this lineup, I think Seattle will go with one of the many cheaper, very comparable options out there on the market.

Overall, I would be happy with either of these players being added to Seattle’s roster, but I see a lot of roadblocks.

Trade Fit: Medium/Low

Cost: High

Subscribe now

Read more

Sometimes, you do get a second chance to make things right. The Mariners may have that opportunity this winter.

According to an article by Adam Jude at the Seattle Times, a reunion with either Carlos Santana or Justin Turner is considered likely. Doing some digging on the situation I can confirm, it appears one of these two players will be Seattle’s plan at first base/DH.

Since the end of the 2024 season, I have been saying that a reunion with either player makes a tremendous amount of sense, and Seattle seems to agree.

I profiled Santana and Turner in my offseason guide a few weeks ago.

Turner was acquired at the deadline in 2024 and subsequently posted a 126 wRC+ down the stretch for the Mariners. The 39-year-old was lauded for his leadership skills and his ability to be another voice in the clubhouse for hitters who have experienced winning at a high level.

The clubhouse voiced support for a reunion with Turner this offseason, and the club has responded with interest in retaining the soon-to-be-40-year-old first baseman.

According to Jude’s piece in the Seattle Times, the Mariners have also shown interest in a reunion with Carlos Santana. Santana finished the 2022 season in Seattle, including one of the biggest hits in Mariners postseason history.

Santana, similar to Justin Turner, was praised for his leadership and clutch factor. He came up huge for the Mariners in the most significant moments, seemingly saving each of his fifteen marine layer-defying home runs for the perfect times.

Seattle’s front office decided not to bring back Santana and seemingly searched for a replacement for nearly two full seasons until acquiring Justin Turner in July.

It wasn’t so much of the production that the Mariners lacked in their absence; the leadership and mentorship glued the clubhouse together.

While covering the Mariners multiple times in 2022, I saw Santana talk to J.P. Crawford after games about his approach as a left-handed hitter. He was well known for mentoring a 21-year-old rookie who had burst onto the scene. Turner helped in similar ways last season.

Not only does a reunion with one of these players make sense for Seattle’s clubhouse, but there are several on-field reasons a reunion makes sense.

1. Both are still solid players

Despite their advanced age, both of these guys can still ball. Santana posted a 114 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR, becoming the oldest player to win his first Gold Glove award at 38 years old. He also whacked 23 home runs for the second straight season and was productive from both sides of the plate.

He did most of his damage from the right side, destroying lefties to the tune of a 161 wRC+. His ability to switch hit does add balance to the lineup from a handedness perspective. Santana will turn 39 shortly after opening day.

After being acquired by Seattle at the end of 2024, Justin Turner put up a 128 wRC+ down the stretch and a 117 wRC+ for the season. Despite a lack of power that likely won’t return to his game, Turner evolved by elevating his line drive rate and lowering his fly ball rate while maintaining high contact rates.

Read more

The 2024-2025 offseason guide is HERE at Sea Level! In the 2023/2024 edition, we identified Randy Arozarena as the number one target of the offseason, with Jorge Polanco checking in at five.

This guide is imperfect, but I do my best to give context to the moves the Mariners could make, and as objectively as possible, I will try to identify what moves they should make.

Seattle’s front office was active last offseason, but the club didn’t see results from offseason additions outside of Luke Raley. Mitch Garver and Mitch Haniger looked painfully bad throughout the entire campaign. Jorge Polanco started slow and dealt with a severe knee issue even when he performed. Ryne Stanek was traded at the deadline. The bet slips on Ty France and Dom Canzone didn’t come close to cashing.

These poor results ultimately lost Scott Servais his job while the front office was retained. The front office clearly re-evaluated their process when making moves at the deadline, bringing in veteran hitters with refined processes that performed well, along with June signing Victor Robles.

This exercise aims to identify as many potential targets for Seattle as possible through free agency and trade. Throughout the offseason, I will break down each candidate individually on podcast episodes.

Please upgrade to a paid subscription to get access to everything I do here at Sea Level. VIP subscribers also get an autographed card from Victor Robles or Bryan Woo.

Without further ado…. here is the 2024/2025 Seattle Mariners offseason guide!

P.S. I will keep adding to this list as the offseason goes along.

Subscribe now

Important offseason dates

-Free Agency begins 5 days after the conclusion of the World Series (October 30).

-November 5-7 GM Meetings

-Players have until November 19th to accept the QO.

-November 22 is the non-tender deadline

-Winter Meetings are December 9-12 in Dallas.

What are their biggest needs?

The Free Agents

The free agent class….. isn’t great. Even the good and (somewhat realistic) options are aging or should be out of Seattle’s price range altogether. I will touch on players with some of those concerns, but we won’t be touching on players such as Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, or Juan Soto.

Seattle’s ownership isn’t going to spend big on players, and outside of Soto, I’m not sure any of the big free agents are worth it. Let’s take a look.

Christian Walker

Christian Walker seems to be one of the bigger names in free agency that may be right on the border of what Seattle may be willing to spend this offseason. At 33 years old, Walker is coming off a 119 wRC+ season in which he posted his fourth season of at least a 110 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR.

Because he took longer to develop, Walker hits the open market for the first time and will likely look to capitalize with a 3-4 year deal. Seattle could really use a hitter like Walker in their lineup, but his fit comes with concerns. The first concern is, unfortunately, his price. The AAV he may receive might just price Seattle out of his market. If the AAV doesn’t, the years he asks for may remove the Mariners from any conversations. Seattle has been somewhat poor at identifying when the aging curve will strike, and Walker will be 34 during the 2025 campaign.

The fit makes a ton of sense, but this reeks of a risk the Mariners won’t be willing to take.

Fit: High

Read more

Bats

Randy Arozarena

Arozarena is an extremely difficult evaluation, but I would be thrilled if Seattle could acquire him. The right-handed hitting outfielder doesn’t turn 30 until Spring Training in 2025 and has two years remaining after 2024. 

He isn’t having a great year, and Tampa rarely sells low on assets, but the 29-year-old All-Star has essentially been himself since May 1. As of June 24 Arozarena owns a 96 wRC+, but a 134 since May 1. Arozarena doesn’t come without question marks, but he is exactly the type of player this team needs in the middle of their order, specifically in October. He owns a .336/.414/.616 slash line in the postseason. I would expect a decent-sized prospect package, potentially headlined by Tai Peete to be attractive to Tampa. 

Fit: High

Price: Medium

Yandy Díaz

Similar to his Rays teammate, Díaz is a difficult evaluation. The Rays feel like an inevitable trade partner for Seattle in a complex market. Tampa has a surplus of right-handed bats with track records of production in positions of need for Seattle. Díaz is among the best fits on the entire market because of his batted ball data and ability to hit anywhere in the lineup.

The 32 year old first baseman has had a bit of a down year after an All Star appearance and a batting title in 2023. His wRC+ is still a respectable 110, down 54 points from 2023. Much like his teammate Arozarena, Díaz has been himself since May 1. He holds a 133 wRC+ since May 1, and has maintained his extreme hard hit rates for his whole career. While the power numbers and launch angles fluctuate consistently, the contact profile and exit velocities would fit in nicely for Seattle’s strikeout heavy lineup. He is one of my favorite targets for Seattle at the deadline provided Tampa is willing to sell. 

Fit: High

Price: Medium/High

Brandon Lowe

I have long felt like Brandon Lowe was destined to be a Seattle Mariner, and this may just be the year. Lowe is essentially what Seattle hoped to get from Jorge Polanco, but hasn’t received. Despite injury concerns and just 43 games this season, the 30 year old second baseman has continued to rake, slashing .227/.325/.468 for a 126 wRC+.

Lowe is a really good hitter with tons of pop, something Seattle desperately needs to add at this deadline. While he doesn’t hit for a high average, Lowe’s strikeout rates aren’t terrible (26%), and his walk rates are very good (10.5%). He can also play all around the field, including first base and corner outfield. If Seattle acquired him I wouldn’t mind them testing him out at third base as well. Lowe has club options for both 2025 and 2026 and the Rays could be looking to move on.

Brandon Lowe or his teammate Yandy Diaz would be my top picks to become Mariners following the deadline.

Fit: High

Price: Medium

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I have discussed this deadline for the Mariners very consistently in terms of what they need from the offensive players they acquire. They need a mix of ceiling and floor, whether that is one, two, or three players. I believe Vladimir Guerrero Jr. offers the best mix of ceiling and floor of any player that will theoretically be available in this market.

While Vlad hasn’t quite lived up to his billing as a superstar, he does have one MVP-caliber season under his belt and is a four-time All-Star, including a starter at first base in 2024. Vladdy has been as durable as they come, and hasn’t posted a wRC+ under 118 since the shortened 2020 season. His high water mark is 166, and somewhere in the middle would be perfect for the Mariners. I love his fit and Seattle’s fit in a trade with Toronto, who could be interested in a mix of prospects and MLB-ready first baseman Tyler Locklear to replace Vlad Jr.

Fit: High

Price: High

Luis Robert Jr.

Read more

The trade deadline is a little under eight weeks away and the Mariners continue to maintain a sizable lead in the weak American League West, which at the time of this writing sits at five-and-a-half games. Assuming that relatively remains the case come the end of July, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander could embark on their most busy, aggressive, and important deadline of their Seattle tenure, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently saying the club is in “go mode” for 2024.

As Passan elaborated in his early trade deadline preview on June 4, “go mode” alludes to the Mariners potentially shopping at the top-end of the market. Naturally, trade discussion around the team has been dominated by the biggest names speculated to be available, such as White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr., Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Athletics slugger Brent Rooker, and Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes. 

But while the Mariners may wind up coming away from the deadline with a marquee player in tow, other additions will certainly be required to properly elevate an offense that has thus far scored the 10th-fewest runs (265) and posted the highest strikeout percentage (27.2%) in MLB, and they all won’t be of the blockbuster variety.

It’s a little after 3 a.m. and I probably should be asleep, but instead I’m up researching lower-tier trade options for the Mariners because I’m an absolute freak. Indulge me, won’t you? Here are five ideas I wanted to write about.

Jake Fraley, OF, Reds

Dominic Canzone is getting ample opportunity to prove his mettle at the big-league level, but outside of hitting the occasional home run, he’s not bringing much to the table at the moment. Since returning on May 15 from a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder, the 26-year old outfielder is slashing a rough .154/.224/.346 (65 wRC+) and isn’t providing anywhere close to enough defensive and baserunning value to make up the difference. With Canzone also being one-half of a Julio Rodríguez sandwich that often sees Mitch Haniger and his .223/.288/.349 (88 wRC+) slash line serve the role as the other slice of bread, the Mariners undoubtedly have to get better in the corner regions of the outfield unless things drastically change—quickly.

Fraley, the former Mariner, is a solid all-around player who can provide Seattle with some much-needed balance. His Baseball Savant page is, let’s say, not great (there’s a lot of blue), but the numbers are the numbers; he’s quite literally a league-average bat with a 100 wRC+, striking out at just a 19.1% clip with an 8% walk rate and a solid .288/.346/.363 slash line. Additionally, he’s capable of stealing a few bags, racking up 10 already this season, generally runs the bases well, and plays a respectable corner outfield where he’s posted a 0 outs above average. 

The question Fraley’s numbers, particularly how his high batting average and on-base percentage only translate to a wRC+ of 100, raise is: how much has he benefited from the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark? The answer is: not a ton, actually. While he has statistically been a better hitter at home, slashing .306/.377/.355 (106 wRC+), he’s tallied a solid .274/.323/.369 (97 wRC+) outside of Cincinnati. He also has fared slightly better against left-handed pitchers (102 wRC+) than righties (99 wRC+), though he only has 31 plate appearances against the former as opposed to 131 versus the latter.

Essentially, the idea here is to swap the power upside of Canzone for Fraley’s high average and on-base output and baserunning prowess, which the Mariners could frankly use more of. And while Fraley’s lack of power production despite playing in Cincinnati is noteworthy, it should be acknowledged that he has put up double-digit home run totals in two of his three full seasons to date. All that remains to be seen, and this applies to nearly every team in the woefully mid National League, is whether or not the Reds are open to trading him. I would lean towards yes, considering he’s more of a fourth outfield type who’s set to enter his second year of arbitration this winter, but who knows. 

Jake McCarthy, OF, Diamondbacks

The Phillies have apparently been sniffing around on McCarthy, whose Diamondbacks are one of the many National League teams hovering around the .500 mark, so how willing are they to trade off major-league pieces—especially young, club-controlled ones like the 26-year old? Of course, there’s plenty of time for these things to sort themselves out over the next seven-ish weeks, but it’s almost impossible to gauge at this time.

For the sake of this exercise, though, let’s assume Arizona is open to the possibility. The idea behind McCarthy is more or less the same as Fraley, though McCarthy has been by and large the better player so far in 2024 and comes with two additional years of club control.

McCarthy doesn’t hit the ball hard at all, currently ranking amongst all qualified hitters in the first percentile in hard-hit rate, third percentile in average exit velocity, and 10th percentile in barrel rate. But he makes quality contact with consistency, leading to a .282 batting average up to this point, with an impressive on-base percentage of .368 and a solid .401 slugging percentage. His strikeout rate sits at an attractive 18.2% clip and he’s walking 9.7% of the time as well. In addition, he’s a plus runner who’s swiped 20-plus bags in each of his two “full” seasons (99 games played in each) and currently has nine under his belt in 2024. 

McCarthy won’t cost interested teams a top-of-the-market return, but given his production so far, his three-and-a-half years of club control, and the awkward limbo the defending NL champion Diamondbacks find themselves in, it should still be an expensive venture. But a highly-athletic player who’s producing right now and could stick around for multiple years on the cheap sounds right up Dipoto and company’s alley, no?

Read more

If you get a chance to check these guys out in 2024 in Modesto, Tacoma, or anywhere in between I recommend it! Enjoy, and feel free to drop your top 20 in the comments.

Honorable Mentions: Blake Hunt, Taylor Dollard, Walter Ford, Levi Stoudt, Spencer Packard, Alberto Rodriguez

20 A. Brody Hopkins (RHP)

Don’t look at his college stats, but Hopkins is a pitching coach’s dream. I was told Hopkins is the second-best athlete in the entire system, and I believe it. A two way player in college, the 22-year-old will be a pitcher for Seattle. Hopkins hasn’t thrown a ton in his life, but the fastball could touch 100 MPH with an electric slider. 

He is very interesting and could be a fast mover if they start him in the bullpen, although I have a feeling they will give him a chance to start when he makes his professional debut.

20 B. Samad Taylor (UTL)

Perhaps no player has caught my eye as often as Samad Taylor so far in camp. He is small in stature but possesses some loud tools and a propensity to make plays. He reminds me a ton of utility player Sam Haggerty, but Taylor may have more power and ability to play a true center field.

I like his ability to be a quality big-league utility player who can hit left-handed pitching, and a swing change could allow him to be more.

19. Carlos Vargas (RHP)

Vargas is an interesting project for Seattle, one that has a chance to make the 26-man roster coming out of camp. He is 6-4 and 210 pounds, with an electric arm. Acquired in the Eugenio Suarez trade, Vargas is exactly the type of player the Mariners pitching development staff loves to acquire. 

He has filthy offerings with plus velocity to pair. A sinker, slider, and cutter repertoire is effective if he can control it. In his first outing of the spring, he looked great, leaning on his slider to throw for a strike and rushing his fastball into the upper 90s. In his second outing, he looked to be aiming the fastball and struggled with control, hitting two Padres batters and allowing two runs. 

Vargas could be a high-leverage reliever if he can throw strikes, but that’s a big question mark.

18. Ben Williamson (3B)

Ben Williamson is one of the biggest sleepers on this list for me. The former William & Mary third baseman was a surprise selection in the second round of last years draft for Seattle, a move that was considered a money saver by many. 

I have heard great things from people in the organization about Williamson and his potential on both sides of the ball. A swing change and success in Cape Cod have many optimistic he can add some offense to a tremendous defensive profile at third base. I think Williamson is going to surprise many and make a push closer to my top 10 by the season’s end.

Check out my interview with Ben here.

17. Cade Marlowe (OF)

Cade Marlowe is one of my favorite players in the entire system. A left-handed hitting outfielder with power and speed, Marlowe has a chance to earn a spot on the Mariners 26-man roster this spring. 

A college draftee out of a small school in Georgia, Marlowe has crushed all levels of the minor leagues with his speed and power combination. He even had success at the big league level for a few weeks last season before falling into a slump and losing his place on the roster. I think Marlowe has a solid chance to be an important player for the 2024 Mariners, and has a chance to be on the strong side of a platoon or more if he can continue to refine the adjustments he made in Tacoma in 2023.

Check out my story on Cade here.

16. Teddy McGraw (RHP)

Teddy McGraw is one of the most interesting players on this list. At the end of his freshman year, McGraw went to Cape Cod searching for answers. His four-seam fastball had gotten crushed the year before, prompting him to test out a two-seam at the Cape. The pitch took off, collecting nearly 20 inches of run at times, making it a true bat-missing and bat-breaking pitch.

Implementing the sinker/two-seam made his four-seam much more effective, using both mid-90s offerings on different planes of the strike zone. The two-seam is much more consistent, but the ability to throw four-seamers at the top of the zone is a big deal.

McGraw also throws a slider that has been over 3,000 RPMs and comfortably sits around 2800. His fourth pitch is a changeup which has shown upside and a good feel for. This gives him four average to above-average offerings, especially impressive for an electric arm.

Standing at 6-3, McGraw has a decent enough frame, although he is smaller than some of his teammates who were drafted. Durability is the only concern here, and with better health, there is a good chance he heard his name called early on day 1.

The right-hander went under the knife during his senior year of high school, and also after just .2 innings of this last season at Wake. Both injuries had to do with the UCL although there is some disagreement on whether the second surgery was a clean-up or Tommy John. We should see him make his professional debut at some point this year, though it will be interesting to see if he is a starter or a reliever.

15. Dawel Joseph (SS/CF)

Dawel Joseph was the Mariners’ top signee in the 2024 International signing class, so his placement on here is admittedly a bit of a guess. He is just 16 years old and has a chance to stick up the middle, even at shortstop or in center field. 

He has a simple frame and is supposedly a plus defender, and has drawn body comparisons to Byron Buxton. Joseph is still very far away from the major leagues and even playing stateside. 

14. Jonatan Clase (OF)

Clase is a tough evaluation in some ways because he is still just 21 years old, so the profile still has time to develop in a meaningful way. A very hard worker, he has put on some serious strength to his frame.

Clase is listed at 5 foot 9 and 150 pounds, but the latter is outdated. Seeing him at spring training, he has filled out his frame impressively. He has legit 70-grade speed which allows him to steal bases and track balls down in the outfield, although he isn’t a tactician in either facet. He struggles with routes and jumps, and I have some doubts about him being able to play an MLB-caliber centerfield. 

Clase is a switch hitter with average on-base skills and pretty decent pop, popping 20 home runs in 2023. He strikes out too much to profile as an everyday player at this point, but he still has some time to adjust to the upper levels of the minors.

13. Jeter Martinez (RHP)

Jeter Martinez has an 80-grade name and also ranks as my top pitching prospect in Seattle’s system. He has an electric fastball/slider combination and is still pretty young to pitching, while also being just 17 years old. 

Martinez is a ball of clay but has turned some serious heads already. It will be interesting to see how he develops, but he should stick as a starter and will make his stateside debut in 2024.

12. Emerson Hancock (RHP)

The first few years of Emerson Hancock’s pro career have certainly been disappointing, a former top 10 pick, Hancock has struggled with injuries, diminished stuff, and inconsistencies throughout his professional career. 

Hancock has a big frame, but no longer carries the big-time fastball/slider combination the Georgia product once did. The reviews on him in camp are very positive so far, with an increase in velocity being reported. He will need significantly more fastball value and breaking ball progress to be considered a number 3/4 starter.

Admittedly I watched Hancock in person in his first spring outing and wanted to raise him in my ranks. The fastball velo is back and so was a reformed version of a cutter/slider. Keep a close eye on his velocity and health.

Read more

On Christmas Eve, the front office made its first significant addition, signing designated hitter Mitch Garver to a two-year 24 million dollar deal. The deal gives Seattle a bat that can hit in the middle of the order but only satisfies one of their three stated needs.

Jerry Dipoto has indicated their needs including a middle-of-the-order type bat, and 1.5 outfielders that can play different roles for Seattle.

The Garver signing added a very good hitter that can slot somewhere between the 3-5 slots in the lineup. Ideally, the 33-year-old would hit behind righty slayer Cal Raleigh, creating a matchup nightmare for the opposing pitching staff. 

Garver is going to be the Mariners’ primary designated hitter, which does limit what they can do with the roster. Jorge Soler and Rhys Hoskins (unless they deal Ty France) are almost certainly out of the question. 

Seattle needs to add at least two more players, preferably three to this roster. Each player must be able to defend, otherwise their role gets murky. 

The first and easiest to identify and obtain is a right-handed outfield solution to help protect Dominic Canzone. We have no evidence besides his limited big-league performance that suggests he cannot handle lefties, but a lefty-killing outfielder is a must. 

Adams Duvall, Michael A. Taylor, and Robbie Grossman all fit this role very well. Duvall and Taylor can both handle centerfield as well as handling left-handed pitching. Harold Ramirez is a questionable defender at both first base and the outfield, but could also handle this role. 

The other player the Mariners need to acquire must be of the everyday variety. I would love to see them grab another corner outfielder, but I have been told they liked Isaac Paredes early in the offseason presumably for his positional flexibility and cheaper contract.  

Adding Paredes or someone like Jorge Polanco leads me to believe this team would need to acquire multiple outfielders to go with him. The dream here is an everyday outfielder that can hit either third or fourth in the lineup. 

Randy Arozarena is a name I have mentioned several times already. Max Kepler and Mike Yasztremski make a ton of sense as left-handed options. 

Baltimore has players like Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, and Anthony Santander who all make varying degrees of sense for Seattle to add. Bryan Reynolds, Leodys Taveras, and Dylan Carlson would fit on this roster as well. 

The Mariners could also choose to go a different route and acquire a much younger, cheaper player that is pre-arbitration. Seattle’s budget restrictions make it a difficult needle to thread. 

Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, and Josh Lowe are examples of players who fit this bill. 

Ownership’s lack of desire to spend has thrown a wrench into the plans, making an already difficult task feel all the more impossible. However, there are still a few avenues to a World Series winning ball club. They will need to be creative to make it happen, but there’s a lot of off-season left to work with.

Happy New Year and GOMS. 

Most reports surrounding the Mariners express their interest in adding right-handed bats, specifically free agents that could hit in the middle of the order. 

Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Soler, and Mitch Garver are all players who have been linked to Seattle multiple times throughout the offseason. 

Hoskins is a right-handed first baseman who probably fits best as a DH, coming off a torn ACL that sidelined him for all of 2023. His bat is certainly good enough to play in T-Mobile Park, but there are questions on what kind of deal he would want to sign coming off a major injury. 

Jorge Soler is the bat that has been linked most heavily to Seattle and is my preference of the three hitters. Soler had a monster year in 2023, posting 36 home runs while striking out just 24 percent of the time. 

Soler will turn 32 next season and isn’t much of a defensive option anymore. He played right field just 32 times last season while spending the majority of his playing time at DH.

Mitch Garver is another player the Mariners have reportedly been interested in after his World Series title with the Texas Rangers. Coming off a dismal 2022 season, Garver posted a 138 wRC+ and put himself in a position for a nice deal this winter. 

Garver is a catcher/DH who boasts a profile completely reliant on his bat at this point in his career. He has played 350 innings at catcher in the last two seasons, and never played more than 103 games in a season. 

The free agent market this winter is less than ideal to begin with. There are a handful of elite free agents, but Seattle’s lack of resources should price them out. 

Since the days of Nelson Cruz, the Mariners have been reluctant to add a DH to the roster. 

In theory, the idea is sound, but Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander have failed to execute it. The goal was to keep flexibility and not add a player to the roster that adds little to no defensive value. This would allow the Mariners to cycle players through the DH position to keep them fresh throughout the grind of a long season.

This strategy doesn’t work well if the lineup isn’t deep enough to sustain it. Tommy La Stella and Mike Ford were most of the plan last season, and limited resources have pushed the club to look at things differently.

With limited financial resources and a limited free agent class in front of them, Seattle has to attack this group of players. They need impact bats, and the ones in their price range are likely going to be designated hitters. 

While I am not a fan of the Garver idea, adding Soler or Hoskins to this lineup adds immediate impact and thump that the club sorely needs. 

If the Mariners can’t lure a free-agent hitter this offseason it could be challenging for them to get enough impact via trade, or force them to deal from their major league roster to gain impact players. 

GOMS. 

The offseason began with hope and optimism surrounding the Mariners’ ability to acquire impact talent via free agency or trade, especially after President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto said the payroll was due for an increase.

Since then we have seen one minor offensive acquisition, and two fan favorites traded for the purpose of shedding salary. If the payroll is going to increase from last season, it isn’t going to be by much.

This reluctance to spend puts extreme amounts of pressure on Seattle’s front office group to thread the tiniest of needles in terms of player acquisition. Let’s say the payroll is allowed to increase to 145 million dollars. That gives Seattle 25-30 million dollars (depending on where you look) to spend on free agents and trades.

Signing any significant free agent bat would almost certainly cost 15 million dollars at minimum, leaving 10-15 million for other acquisitions.

Jerry Dipoto and this front office have said they would like to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat to place behind J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodríguez. They have also indicated this bat could be in the form of a corner outfielder, corner infielder, or designated hitter. In total, they would like to acquire 3 bats, including 1.5 outfielders.

The free agent market has been well documented. Outside of Shohei Ohtani and a few star pitchers who will almost certainly get overvalued, you will have to squint to find a star on the market. Seattle certainly doesn’t have the funds to overpay one player, let alone two.

Fans have been frustrated by Seattle’s lack of action, and rightfully so. However, their inaction isn’t a result of complacency. They have to get this right, and this was reiterated on the most recent episode of Talkin M’s with Ryan Divish.

These words were said to Divish in a conversation with a front office member,

“We can’t mess this up.”

These comments indicate a tremendous amount of pressure, both from ownership and the fanbase to make moves that create the best possible roster in 2024. So while I understand the general anxiety and anticipation from the fan base, their current course of action is probably the correct one.

Not many players who were feasible for Seattle this offseason have been taken off the board anyway, and the trade market is thin to begin with. They have calculated their needs, and now they need to execute them fully.

The free agent market is thin. If you miss out on Jorge Soler I’m not convinced you should spend money on any of the other “significant” bats. A similar deal to the one they signed with AJ Pollock last season could be in place with Hunter Renfroe or Adam Duvall.

The trade market is thin. Many teams believe they can compete for a playoff spot this season because of expanded playoffs, and the amount of impact bats available on the market is extremely limited.

The front office knows the importance of this offseason. They also know they are up against their ownership, and a difficult, but not impossible task in front of them.

It can certainly be accomplished, but we may be waiting for a move for a while as this market continues to take shape.

GOMS.

The stove has been anything but hot so far this offseason, but with the Winter Meetings rapidly approaching that is certain to change. It always feels unlikely the Mariners will ever be able to lure a big-time free-agent hitter to Seattle, making the easiest path a trade.

Before we even take a look at whether or not the front office would spend big-time dollars on a hitter, ask yourself if there are any big-name hitters you would even want besides Shohei Ohtani. And why would any hitter, especially the right-handed ones, sign in the least hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball?

Combine all of this with the lack of obvious trade options on the market and it certainly feels that the Seattle Mariners are on a collision course with the Tampa Bay Rays this offseason. Tampa needs pitching, and Seattle needs hitting. A match made in heaven between two sides that have made plenty of deals. Let’s take a look at my top 6 trade targets from Tampa.

Honorable Mention: Austin Shenton

Old friend alert! Austin Shenton is a former Mariner prospect who was dealt at the 2021 deadline for Diego Castillo. He is also a native of Spokane, Washington.

Shenton is knocking on the doorstep of the major leagues, and it seems he could have made his debut with Seattle last season. They tried to acquire him at the deadline from Tampa, but the deal fell through.

The 25-year-old is a corner infielder who put up massive minor league numbers in 2023, blasting 29 home runs with an OPS over 1.000. He can play both corner infield spots and could be a nice insurance policy at both. Shenton still fits really nicely on this roster, and we know Jerry Dipoto loves circling back on players he tried to acquire.

6. Harold Ramirez

Harold Ramírez is an interesting player for the Mariners, especially after the back-to-back 119 wRC+ or better campaigns in Tampa Bay. After starting his career slowly with Miami and Cleveland, Ramirez has enjoyed a breakout two seasons with the Rays.

The 29-year-old spent time in the outfield and at first base but appeared in 91 games as a designated hitter for the Rays. He wouldn’t add much to Seattle defensively, but his offensive profile may draw some interest.

Ramírez hardly walks, but he puts the ball in play very often for a guy with a .460 SLG in 2023. He posted a 128 wRC+ in 2023 and would add a nice element to the middle of Seattle’s order.

Overall, I don’t think the Mariners should be thinking about Ramirez as a main acquisition this offseason. If he is the secondary acquisition I am more than willing to add him to this roster, but I have some concerns about his profile.

The Mariners used to be very staunch in wanting to add players who walk often but have strayed away from this some recently. Ramírez hardly ever walks. He ranked in the 8th percentile of BB% and simply offers nothing defensively. The 29-year-old also doesn’t hit the ball hard and has inflated BABIP numbers the last two seasons.

He hardly strikes out and fits this team positionally, so as a secondary addition I am fine with this. If Harold Ramírez was the main offensive addition of the offseason I would be very worried.

5. Josh Lowe

Lowe had a breakout campaign in 2023, posting a 131 wRC+ in 135 games for Tampa Bay. He had a very similar career trajectory as a prep player to current Mariners outfielder Jarred Kelenic, as well as similar struggles early on.

Lowe corrected those struggles with an impressive campaign, posting 20 home runs and 32 stolen bases to go with an outstanding .292/.335/.500 slash line. I have him at number five on my list for a couple of reasons.

He is going to be VERY expensive, and I am not totally sure that Tampa would move him at all. If they did it would certainly cost Bryce Miller, and I don’t know that there would be much stopping them from asking for Logan Gilbert.

Lowe is relatively unproven, and a high BABIP has me a little worried. Seattle needs hitters that carry high probability, and Lowe just isn’t that quite yet. If the price tag wasn’t so high he would be an excellent fit. If the Mariners pulled the trigger on a deal for him it would be hard not to be absolutely thrilled, but the fit could be better in my opinion.

Subscribe now

Read more

The hot stove is finally heating up around the league, and one of the biggest names available is Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

From everything I can gather the Mariners are very interested in Yamamoto, along with about half the league. Multiple people have indicated Seattle’s interest in Yamamoto to me, and their interest has been confirmed by reputable national sources such as Jon Morosi.

The interest is there, but is the signing feasible? Let’s take a look.

Every team in baseball should be interested in acquiring the services of Yamamoto, for he is about as unique as it comes. At just 25 years old, he has already established himself as one of the most decorated players in NPB history. Yamamoto just became the second player ever to win the Sawamura Award three seasons in a row and collected two MVP awards during his time in the NPB.

The 25-year-old ace features a four-seam fastball that sits 93-96 MPH and a devastating splitter. Like many other Japanese arms before him, his arsenal is deep, also featuring a curveball, cutter, and sweeper. His curveball should stick, as well as either his slider or cutter. This would give the right-hander a legitimate four-pitch mix, positioning him to be an above-average number-two starter.

His frame is really the only concern, standing at just 5-10 and 176 pounds. He is much more similar to Masahiro Tanaka than the power profile of Kodai Senga, but his mechanics are smooth and repeatable, so my concern levels about his slight frame are low.

Yamamoto is certainly going to command a hefty price tag this winter, with many of the biggest spenders involved. I expect the Giants, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Mets to be more than willing to spend big-time money on Yamamoto.

The 25-year-old right-hander should command much more than Senga did last offseason. Senga’s deal checked in at 5 years and 75 million dollars and now looks like it could be one of the biggest bargains of the last few acquisition cycles.

Yamamoto’s deal should easily surpass 200 million dollars, leaving many with doubt that the Mariners would actually entertain a contract this large. Boston, San Francisco, and both New York teams would likely be a lot more desperate to land him considering their lack of pitching.

Despite all of this I truly believe Seattle will absolutely be willing to shell out for Yamamoto for a variety of reasons.

We know the Mariners have had an interest in several Japanese players over the last few seasons. I believe Seattle sees a lot of value in exploring this market, something I have written about recently.

I believe the Mariners would be willing to put themselves in the mix because of his age and massive impact. At just 25 years old, a long-term contract wouldn’t devastate Seattle’s competitive window.

Signing Yamamoto would allow Seattle to boast what I would consider to be the best rotation in baseball, even with six pitchers in it. Yamamoto, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller would be an absolutely devastating staff.

With the Japanese star on board, the options for improvement to the rest of the roster feel unlimited. The Mariners could choose to deal from their rotation or just deal from their loaded prospect ranks to add hitters to fill out the lineup.

Imagine an offseason where Seattle signs Yamamoto, and then deals Bryce Miller to Tampa for Randy Arozarena or Yandy Diaz. Adding a high-end pitcher like Yamamoto would no doubt make the Mariners more comfortable dealing from their strengths, especially when it seems doubtful they could lure a big-time free-agent hitter to Seattle.

Even though it may seem counterintuitive at first, adding a pitcher like Yamamoto or even hometown boy Blake Snell gives Seattle their best opportunity to improve in a meaningful way this offseason. Japanese left-hander Shōta Imanaga also fits this bill.

Without a meaningful starting pitcher acquisition I wouldn’t feel comfortable trading from their staff, especially with the amount of injuries we saw across the league last year.

Seattle won’t likely be able to lure a big-name free-agent hitter because of the challenge it creates for hitters, but the inverse is also true. T-Mobile Park is the best environment in baseball for pitchers. The solution? Spend on pitchers and trade for hitters.

The history of Japanese baseball in Seattle, the environment for pitchers, and the immediate fit in the best six-man rotation in baseball make the Mariners a sneaky fit that the national media will neglect.

If the offer Jerry Dipoto and the Seattle front office can put together is comparable to that of their big market foes, you have to assume the star pitcher would consider it. You have to assume if John Stanton would spend on a free agent it would be more likely to be one that could carry enough ad revenue, ticket sales and merchandise to pay for itself.

Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto and prosper. GOMS.

Last December I believed the Mariners needed to add more talent to their lineup, even after the additions of Kolten Wong and Teoscar Hernández. As I looked around the league for the perfect fit, one player stood out above the rest as a breakout candidate.

I wrote multiple articles that identified the need for a corner infielder, specifically one that could play both spots and add an impact bat to the Seattle lineup. It turned out that both Mariner corner infielders underperformed in 2023, and the lineup wasn’t long enough to bring another playoff appearance to Seattle.

Subscribe now

For the second offseason in a row, Yandy Díaz is a perfect fit on the Mariners roster.

First of all, I want to acknowledge my hesitation with this deal, or frankly, any other deals that are made with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have elite player development, and their strategists consistently help players become the best versions of themselves.

Read more

Since the signings of Kaz Sasaki in 2000 and Ichiro Suzuki in 2001, Seattle has been a popular destination for Japanese free agents looking to make their way to the United States. Following the Ichiro signing Seattle has added several NPB players that have made an impact over the years.

This particular market is filled with overseas talent, specifically from Japan. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shōta Imanaga, Yuki Matsui, and Yariel Rodriguez are all talented arms that are expected to hit the open market this winter. Shohei Ohtani is another Japanese talent available this winter, although he spent the last 6 years dazzling fans in the United States.

The talent isn’t just from the NPB. Jung Hoo Lee is expected to be a fantastic big-league player and will enter the market from the KBO. Many have said he is better than Padres infielder Ha-Seong Kim at his time of arrival in the major leagues.

You can see my scouting reports and analysis on each of the players in my free agency guide, available here.

Subscribe now

It is really difficult to project production overseas to the United States, as there is really no way to compare the competition levels. Because of this, the salaries are typically a little lower than what MLB free agents with similar profiles will receive on the open market.

Recent history tells us the Mariners see a lot of value in this market. They signed Yusei Kikuchi in 2019 and had intense interest in Shohei Ohtani earlier that offseason. Seattle was reportedly the runner-up in the Ohtani sweepstakes, something I mentioned in my piece on Sunday night.

Read more

The offseason is finally here, and with the qualifying offer decisions being finalized this afternoon players are officially able to negotiate and sign where they please. The Mariners ultimately ended up declining to sign any of their pending free agents in the exclusive negotiation period, most notably Teoscar Hernandez.

Seattle is in a very interesting place this offseason, especially with the past two World Series champs remaining in their division. The Mariners need impact players and depth in multiple spots, something that is difficult to address via trades alone.

They will need to utilize free agency to address some of their needs, so I put together 16 players who would theoretically fit on this roster and broke them down! I will be adding to this as the offseason goes along, and will no doubt write longer pieces on specific players as I see fit. I hope you all enjoy it, please leave any comments or players I should add below!

(P.S. I know Shohei Ohtani isn’t on this list, he gets his own article coming soon.)

Subscribe now

Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray is nearly 34 years old but is coming off of his best season as a pro in 2023. In his age 33 season Gray posted the following numbers….

-5.3 fWAR

-2.79 ERA

-2.83 FIP

-184 innings, 183 strikeouts

This was a tremendous season for the veteran starter, and it comes at a perfect time as he is set to hit the open market. Seattle has loved him in the past, and we know they have tried to trade for him on multiple occasions.

Seattle and Gray could be a match made in heaven if the club decides to move on from Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo via trade. Gray will likely command a 1-3 year deal with higher AAV, something the Mariners may be willing to pony up for considering the limited amount of long-term commitment.

We know Jerry Dipoto loves Sonny Gray, so does he finally acquire him? I think he should.

Fit: High

Whit Merrifield

Whit Merrifield is another player the Mariners have been interested in before, and we know Dipoto loves circling back on players. Merrifield will turn 35 during next season on the heels of being nominated for a Silver Slugger in Toronto last season.

While his nomination is legit, I’m not sure his production is. Merrifield posted just a 93 wRC+ in 2023 and hasn’t been an above-average hitter since the COVID season.

Read more

There’s no question this offseason will be a pivotal one for the Seattle Mariners and their front office. This team fell short of a chance to compete for a ring, instead seeing the Texas Rangers celebrate in front of hundreds of thousands of crazed fans in Arlington yesterday.

If the Mariners want to bring a parade to Seattle they need to make some IMPACT offensive moves this offseason. That’s where my trade guide comes in.

I have spent the last month compiling impact players who I think could be moved this offseason, and put together a Mariners-specific trade guide to analyze these players and their fit with Seattle.

I will also be posting my free agent guide on Tuesday when players are officially free to sign and negotiate with teams. Hopefully, you enjoy this piece and please don’t forget to upgrade to a paid subscription! You will receive an autographed card with any MVP subscription.

Subscribe now

Lars Nootbar

Lars Nootbar has become a popular name for Mariners fans to discuss over the last few player acquisition cycles. The 25-year-old outfielder has become an impact player on both sides of the ball and is also known as a terrific clubhouse presence.

One main reason why he is a fit here is because of the intuitive fit between the two clubs. Seattle needs young hitters and St. Louis needs young pitching, and the St. Louis roster is ready to compete outside of their pitching.

Nootbar is a good defender who can be a well-above-average corner outfielder who can handle center field. He is a good athlete who runs the bases well.

Offensively he may not have the ceiling of some of the other bats Seattle could acquire, but he is certainly a fit for what the Mariners should be looking for. A left-handed bat with plus contact skills, Nootbar posted a 118 wRC+ last season in 117 games for the Cardinals.

More importantly, he controls the zone very well. Nootbar posted a .367 OBP and a 19.7 K%. He has four years of club control remaining.

Fit: High

Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich is no longer the perennial MVP candidate he once was, but that doesn’t stop him from being one of the most perfect fits on this roster. Yelich is 31 years old and is under contract until 2029, a big reason why Seattle may not be interested.

A left-handed hitter, the outfielder posted a 122 wRC+ and a .278/.370/.447 slashline in 2023 for the Milwaukee Brewers. The bigger part of 2023 for Yelich was his ability to stay on the field, playing in at least 144 games for the second year in a row. Injuries slowed him down in 2020 and 2021, but he seems to have put any concerns behind him.

Yelich has walked at a 12 percent clip while striking out just over 21 percent of the time in his career. He is an excellent fit from a player and a clubhouse perspective, but it feels doubtful that Seattle would want to acquire his contract.

Fit: Medium

Christian Walker

Christian Walker is a player who I have liked for quite some time now, but his fit on the roster has been murky until Ty France’s 2023 struggles. Walker is a first base/DH type who could replace France if the Mariners decide to move on.

Walker is 32 years of age and has one year remaining on his contract. Walker is a right-handed power bat that has hit 69 home runs in the past two seasons.

While I prefer a left-handed bat, Walker is productive against both lefties and righties. He destroys left-handed pitching, posting a 175 WRC+ against Southpaws this season. The former Gold Glove award winner would immediately slide into the first base/DH rotation.

Walker also earns brownie points for his low strikeout rate and league-average walk rate. He is unlikely to get an extension because of his age, making the fit with Arizona questionable moving forward. Walker owns a career 108 WRC+.

Fit: Medium

Randy Arozarena

Arozarena is a 28-year-old outfielder coming off his third consecutive full season posting a 124 wRC+ or above. Seattle desperately needs to acquire multiple everyday bats this offseason, and one needs to be an All-Star caliber hitter in my opinion. Arozarena is a player that would both fit this billing and also may be available due to Tampa Bay’s unique methods of player development and acquisition.

The Cuban-born outfielder has postseason experience and has been at his best in October. Not only would he provide valuable postseason experience, he would add an impact bat that would give Julio Rodríguez some much-needed protection at the top of the order.

Seattle and Tampa match up pretty well in a deal because of their need for starting pitching. The Rays certainly don’t need to trade Randy, but if they do decide to trade him he would be at the top of my list of potential acquisitions. Arozarena has three years of club control remaining.

Fit: High

Read more

Those three pitchers may be the biggest key to Seattle’s success moving forward. Whether they decide to keep them or move them to gain offensive weapons, they have become impressive assets at the back end of the Mariners rotation.

Positives

Seattle got huge contributions from their starters, and these contributions happened much earlier than they had anticipated. Bryce Miller’s May 2 debut came roughly a month after the club lost 100 million dollar left-hander Robbie Ray to a flexor injury that cost him his 2023 season. Bryan Woo’s June 3 debut came on the heels of Marco Gonzales suffering a forearm injury that cost him the rest of 2023.

Both pitchers stepped in admirably in place of the veteran lefthanders. Miller was excellent in his rookie campaign, firing a career-high in innings between the minor leagues and his time in Seattle. His 131 innings in Seattle were sorely needed, and are about as much as you could ask for from a rookie.

Bryan Woo is as impressive as a young pitcher can get, especially for a kid who has hardly pitched in his lifetime. Between injuries and role/usage, Woo far surpassed his previous workloads including 87 innings in Seattle.

Emerson Hancock provided a few decent outings at the big league level and overall performed well in Arkansas before an injury ended his season.

All three players should have good trade value, as well as value to the Mariners moving forward should they decide to keep the trio.

Negatives

Woo and Miller tired out big time at the end of the year, losing much of the command and effectiveness they had most of their rookie campaigns. With the injury to Hancock, Seattle didn’t have much in the way of depth down the stretch.

They were forced to turn to both pitchers earlier than they probably would have liked, meaning their workloads got heavy in crunch time at the end of the season. The Mariners didn’t have good replacement options, so the youngsters were forced to battle through fatigue and ineffectiveness as they battled for their postseason lives.

Overall the season was very good for both pitchers, but the Mariners no doubt would have preferred to not rely on them as heavily as they did.

Grade: B+

Scrap heap additions and high-level talent filled out one of the best units in baseball once again. Let’s take a look at the 2023 Mariners bullpen.

Positives

The first and most obvious positive for the Mariners bullpen was Matt Brash. The flamethrowing righthander routinely participated in witchcraft on the mound, which was apparent from the year's opening series when he folded Jose Ramirez like a lawn chair.

He had a rough start to the season mostly caused by bad luck, but ended the season as a true relief ace. I believe Seattle has one of the very best relievers in all of major league baseball in Brash.

Andrés Muñoz was a true relief ace in 2022 but took a tiny step back in 2023. Overall he was a massive positive still, as he was a very good high-leverage reliever. Muñoz seemed to find some solutions to the struggles that plagued him as the season went along, most notably a wicked sinker.

He spent most of the season searching for command of his slider, something he will need to find next season to get back to his 2022 form. Offseason surgery before 2023 definitely hampered his return, and I expect a nice comeback in 2024.

Justin Topa, Gabe Speier, and Tayler Saucedo all turned out to be excellent finds by Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners’ pro scouting department. It is a huge boost to find these players that cost essentially nothing to acquire and turn into legit mid to high-leverage options.

Isaiah Cambell seems like a really nice development story for Seattle moving forward and should see an elevated role in 2024.

Negatives

I have talked/written about my frustrations with Seattle’s bullpen usage many times already, but I will reiterate once again. I believe the Mariners settled for mediocrity after trading Paul Sewald.

While many people will point to the act of trading Sewald as a mistake, I would argue it is the lack of action following the Sewald deal that was their undoing. Seattle didn’t add any sort of replacement at all via trade unless you count Eduard Bazardo.

They then acquired Dominic Leone and kept him on the roster for the stretch run, even in the midst of complete ineffectiveness. They had options at the minor league level that had much higher ceilings and completely ignored them to stick with veterans like Leone and Thornton (who was mostly good).

I would have liked to see Prelander Berroa or Riley O’Brien late in the season because I simply don’t see how it could have been worse or less exciting than what they ran out there for the last few bullpen spots.

You can check out my video analysis/grade for the bullpen below.

Grade: B